Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I do hold a long position in AVAX as a token holder.

This analytics report was written as a follow-up from  25 JAN 2022 (TUE)- Avalanche (AVAX) Report Card.

1A. Avalanche Project Updates

1. Platypus Finance Launches Stableswap Protocol on Avalanche (14 Jan 2022)

Platypus Finance, a single-side AMM (decentralized exchange) designed for exchanging stablecoins, has launched its Beta application on Avalanche. Platypus is implemented as a set of smart contracts, designed to prioritize censorship resistance, security, self-custody and maximum capital efficiency. It features single-token provision, which eliminates impermanent loss risk for liquidity providers.

2. Celsius Now Supports Avalanche (19 Jan 2022)

Users can now earn and borrow against their AVAX on Celsius.

3. 1inch Network Deploys on Avalanche (20 Jan 2022)

1inch Network has expanded its aggregation and limit order protocols to Avalanche. The move will provide 1inch users access to several Avalanche-based liquidity sources. Trader Joe is the most used dApp on Avalanche with an average daily trading volume of $223M. According to Dune Analytics, 1inch has surpassed over 1M users and $120B in overall trading volume on the Ethereum network alone.

4. Pinata Launches Limited Time Subscription Offer for Avalanche Users (26 Jan 2022)

Pinata is offering Avalanche users a 20% discount on its enterprise and custom plans for an annual subscription. The enterprise plans include premium features such as unlimited storage, 100 GB of bandwidth per month, your own dedicated gateway, and submarining. The limited time offer will be live for 3 months, starting January 25, 2022.

5. Avalanche Rush Program Brings $UST to Avalanche (28 Jan 2022)

Pangolin, a native decentralized exchange on Avalanche, will soon have access to $2M in AVAX rewards. Pangolin has officially joined another Avalanche Rush incentive program focused on ecosystem growth. This initiative will democratize stablecoins on Avalanche and increase stablecoin usage and volume across the Avalanche network.

This $2M in $AVAX rewards will be combined with two additional rewards, $LUNA & $PNG, to be distributed in a novel three token rewards Super Farm on Pangolin.

6. CCRI Finds Avalanche to Consume 35,000x Less Energy Than Ethereum and 200,000x Less Than Bitcoin (2 Feb 2022)

Avalanche uses just 0.0005% of the amount of energy consumed by Bitcoin. Bitcoin consumes the same energy as 8.5 million U.S. households in a given year. Avalanche secures $18,454 in total value locked on the network per kWh, as compared to $4,395 on Solana.

7. Avalanche Foundation Makes Strategic Investment in EonXI Labs to Back Web 3.0 Startups and Founders (3 Feb 2022)

Avalanche Foundation has invested in EonXI Labs, a US-based incubation lab. The Avalanche Foundation’s significant investment will help bridge socioeconomic resource gaps via the metaverse and play-to-earn gaming.

1B. Top 2 Good News for AVAX HODLERS !!!

• $AVAX: Coin Bureau Explains Why It Is Bullish on Ethereum Rival Avalanche
  Statistic as of 2022-02-07 07:11 AM EDT: 30 positive votes, 5 negative votes
  
  Market analysis and crypto commentary show Coin Bureau says that one Ethereum competitor is poised to break into the top five by market capitalization.  Speaking in a recent YouTube video, Coin Bureau’s host “Guy” said that $AVAX, the native token of smart contracts platform Avalanche has a chance to compete with $ETH.
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  

• Grayscale Adds LUNA, AVAX and MATIC to Consideration List: Details
  Statistic as of 2022-02-07 07:11 AM EDT: 14 positive votes, 1 negative vote
  
  Mentioned coins and tokens could become Grayscale investment products in foreseeable future
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

1C. Top Bad News for AVAX HODLERS !!!

• DeFi protocol Wonderland is allegedly run by QuadrigaCX co-founder
  Statistic as of 2022-02-07 07:11 AM EDT: 2 positive votes, 5 negative votes
  
  Avalanche-based DeFi protocol Wonderland was allegedly co-founded by QuadrigaCX executive Michael Patryn, who reportedly has a criminal past.
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

2. How Avalanche Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist since 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

AVAX has undergone 2,316.69% return from USD 3.2068 to USD 77.4984 (19.70% higher than the 25 Jan 2022 snapshot) since 01 Jan 2021. AVAX is the 10th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. How Resilience Avalanche Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.

Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021

AVAX has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.

During the last 4 BTC market crashes,

When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, AVAX returned -35.01 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, AVAX returned -9.73 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, AVAX returned -9.94 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, AVAX returned -19.33 % at 22 June 2021

4. Technical Analysis on Avalanche

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when AVAX is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AVAX (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AVAX (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 06 Feb 2022, VWAP is suggesting that AVAX has been gaining a lot of momentum the past 4 days, with its price now trending way above its week-long volume-weighted average and threading around its month-long volume-weighted average.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of AVAX closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that AVAX is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that AVAX is losing momentum. 

As of 06 Feb 2022, MACD is suggesting that AVAX has been gaining a lot of momentum lately.

4.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of AVAX
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of AVAX on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of AVAX from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of AVAX

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that AVAX is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that AVAX is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 06 Feb 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that AVAX is now trading near its overbought upper band threshold.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that AVAX is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that AVAX is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 06 Feb 2022, RSI is suggesting that AVAX is neither oversold nor overbought.

4.5. Price and Volume Analysis

Although AVAX has been rising for the past few days, its active daily trading volume in this bull run however is nowhere near the daily volume last Dec when it was in a bearish trend.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is neutral on AVAX, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Avalanche Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Avalanche defined above, AVAX seems to trade at a lower risk level on 06 Feb 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 27 Jan 2022, with its biggest pullback being seen at - 18.18% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

The probability distribution chart of AVAX's daily return has tilted right, with lower probability of losing 15% or more and a higher probability of making 2% return or more on any single day. This indicates that AVAX is now having a better risk profile.

6. AVAX Community Analytics

Number of AVAX Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Avalanche followers have grown 11.22 % from 516,425.0 to 574,392.0 on Twitter and grown 9.06 % from 31,127 to 33,947 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Avalanche Twitter followers peaked on 13 Jan 2022 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 23 Jan 2022.

Avalanche managed to attract 320 new Twitter users and 97 new Reddit subscribers on average for the past 30 days.

7. Google Trends Analytics

"avalanche network" reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-11-28 00:00:00 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, "avalanche network" Google Score has decreased 40.65 % from 84.25 to 50.0
Over the last 6 months, "avalanche network" Google Score has increased 410.2 % from 9.8 to 50.0

In the past 30 days, "avalanche network" was mostly sought after on Google from internet users who reside in Bulgaria, United Arab Emirates and Nigeria.

8. Developer Activity Analytics

Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Avalanche forks increased 153.91% from 115 to 292 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Avalanche stars increased 163.21% from 530 to 1,395 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvements/ modifications on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

Avalanche pull request contributors increased 73.33% from 15 to 26 in the past year.

9. Binance Futures Activities

There are increasingly more traders taking long position on AVAXUSDT futures as compared to the shorters as AVAX recovers from its low.

AVAXUSDT long-short ratios remain consistently higher than BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures. As crypto market is in an uptrend now, we see a large influx of long position on AVAXUSDT futures. Please take note that this long-short ratio is simply just dividing the number of accounts who are long by the number of accounts who are short, without taking any buy/ sell volume into consideration. 

At the time of writing, crypto market is in a "risk-on" mode for the past few hours, with sell volumes building up on BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures which are relatively more stable while buy volumes are trending up relative to the sell volumes for small/mid market cap AVAXUSDT futures.

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