Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I do hold a long position in AVAX as a token holder.

1A. Top 3 Good News for AVAX HODLERS !!!

• 1inch Heads to Avalanche and Gnosis Chain
  Statistic as of 2022-01-25 07:33 AM EDT: 16 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Macro Guru Raoul Pal Says Terra (LUNA), Avalanche (AVAX) and Three Additional Altcoins Will Shine in 2022
  Statistic as of 2022-01-25 07:33 AM EDT: 11 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried names 2 potential ethereum-killers (AVAX and SOL) as the next big blockchains: report
  
  (Extracted from Markets Insider)
  
  

2. How Avalanche Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist since 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

AVAX has undergone 1,918.91% return from USD 3.2068 to USD 64.7425 since 01 Jan 2021. AVAX is the 10th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. How Resilience Avalanche Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.

Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021

AVAX has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.

During the last 4 BTC market crashes,
When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, AVAX returned -35.01 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, AVAX returned -9.73 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, AVAX returned -9.94 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, AVAX returned -19.33 % at 22 June 2021

4. Technical Analysis on Avalanche

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when AVAX is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AVAX (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of AVAX (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 24 Jan 2022, VWAP is suggesting that AVAX has lost significant momentum and is now trading at a price level that is lower than its week-long and month-long volume weighted averages.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of AVAX closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that AVAX is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that AVAX is losing momentum. 

As of 24 Jan 2022, MACD is suggesting that AVAX has been losing a significant amount of momentum.

4.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of AVAX
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of AVAX on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of AVAX from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of AVAX

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that AVAX is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that AVAX is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 24 Jan 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that AVAX has been oversold to an overcorrected zone.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that AVAX is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that AVAX is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 24 Jan 2022, RSI is suggesting that AVAX is being oversold slightly.

4.5. Price and Volume Analysis

Following the Dec 2021 bull run, AVAX daily active trading volume has ben muted until recently where a crypto market crash spiked up its daily active trading volume slightly. 

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge does think that AVAX is undervalued, but not sure whether it is the right time to buy the dip now as crypto market may continue to fall and nobody could tell where is the real bottom as of now, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Avalanche Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Avalanche defined above, AVAX seems to trade at a greater risk level on 24 Jan 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 14 Jan 2022, with its biggest pullback being seen at -18.18% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

The probability distribution chart of AVAX daily return has been shifted left (i.e. having greater probability of losing more than 20%), indicating that the downside risk of AVAX remains and becoming stronger.

6. AVAX Community Analytics

Number of AVAX Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Avalanche subscribers have grown 12.16 % from 29,320 to 32,884 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Avalanche Reddit followers peaked on 09 Jan 2022.

There are 123 new subscribers joining Avalanche Reddit every day on average.

7. Google Trends Analytics

avalanche network reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-11-28 00:00:00 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, avalanche network Google Score has decreased 34.55 % from 82.0 to 53.67
Over the last 6 months, avalanche network Google Score has increased 416.03 % from 10.4 to 53.67

Over the last month, Avalanche Network was most saught after on Google from Switzerland, Belgium and Nigeria.

Switzerland is a crypto hub that offers crypto-friendly business environment to all crypto players and crypto venture capitalists. It is because of this exact reason why a large proportion of crypto companies and blockchain foundations decided to set up their base there.  Belgium on the other hand is a high-income European nation. Nigeria is the region where there is a large and growing population of crypto users. High interests from these 3 regions are bullish to Avalanche for the long run.

8. Developer Activity Analytics

Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Avalanche forks increased 154.46% from 112 to 285 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Avalanche stars increased 162.64% from 522 to 1,371 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvements/ modifications on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

Avalanche pull request contributors increased 85.71% from 14 to 26 in the past year.

9. Binance Futures Analytics

There are more traders taking long position on AVAXUSDT futures as compared to the shorters despite the market crash.

AVAXUSDT long-short ratios remain consistently higher than BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures despite the market dip. As crypto market recovers slightly today, we see a large influx of long position on AVAXUSDT futures. Please take note that this long-short ratio is simply just dividing the number of accounts who are long by the number of accounts who are short, without taking any buy/ sell volume into consideration. 

At the time of writing, sell volumes has gradually built up since 25 Jan 2022 09:00 UTC time with most cryptos seeing sell volumes more than buy volumes as of 11:00 UTC time as crypto market recovers slightly.

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