This week I came across an old email from a subscriber from January 2018, just after Bitcoin had reached the $20,000. She said, 

"...I can’t help but feel extremely put off by the exorbitant prices to buy into most of the worthwhile coins (bitcoin, dash, etc) and to know I’ll never be ‘crypto wealthy’ (let alone a ‘crypto millionaire’ at this rate. (That train has left the station.)."

She unsubscribed from my mailing list that same day. 

I have to admit, I'm a bit sad when I see people focusing only on the money part - but who am I to judge - it was exactly what drew me in, too, in the beginning. Of course, the more time I spent in this space, the clearer it became to me, that the money part is just a nice side effect.

The fundamental promise of decentralised cryptocurrencies (and decentralisation in general) lies in the fact that they facilitate a fairer distribution of power in the world. 

And with that of course also a fairer distribution of wealth. So let's focus on that wealth part today. 

I hope the lady above kept following the crypto space throughout 2018 and didn't miss the 95% discount on the "exorbitant" prices of the winter of 2017. 

The irony is that "exorbitant" prices only feel off-putting to people who do NOT hold any cryptocurrency yet. Everyone else ususally gets pretty freaking excited and calls it "moon" instead of "ex-orbit-ant".   

The train has not left the station for good. It goes in circles and keeps coming back to pick up new passengers.  

Markets move in cycles, like everything else in life and nature. Prices go up (bull markets) and they go down (bear markets).

The last 14 months have been a bear market. There will be more bear markets in the future. Just as there will be more bull markets. And we're right in the transition right now, just before the next bull market begins. 

Prices may be "exorbitant" again within the next two years.

Bitcoin is continuously reaching higher highs, but also higher lows.

Even when prices fall by 95%, as they did over the last year, they don't go back to previous lows. So despite the huge "$20,000-bubble" bursting last year - Bitcoin is still on an uptrend since its beginning. And if history repeats, Bitcoin will be worth $200,000 in about 2 years.

How come? 

In May 2020 - about one year from now - the next Bitcoin "halving" will occur, where the issuance of Bitcoins per block will be cut in half. Basically, a lot less new Bitcoins will come into circulation per day. This halving has occurred twice before (it happens every 4 years).

During the last two occurrences, Bitcoin's price went up times 3 in the year leading up to the halving, and then times 20 in the year after the halving:

• from 2012 to 2013 it went from $3 to $200
• from 2015 to 2017 it went from $300 to $20,000

If history repeats, then it's highly likely that Bitcoin will go from around $3,000 this year, to $200,000 over the next 2 years. 

I know. This sounds just as crazy to me as it does to you. But I guess when it was at $3 nobody could imagine $200 either. You can read more about it here in this article. 

The reason these numbers and percentages sound so unbelievable to us, is because the world of investing and trading has largely been reserved only for Wall Street insiders til now. Thanks to Bitcoin and Blockchain, though, it is now available to all of us. See how it distributes power? :)  

Let's enjoy the financial benefits, but let's not forget the fundamental changes it can bring to society.  

***

Anja Schuetz  is a crypto explorer and mentor for absolute beginners, with specific focus on non-digital natives. She also consults as a Customer Communication & Operations Manager for blockchain start-ups.

Follow Anja @connecteconomy on Twitter  | Youtube  | Publish0x