When I first started this article Bitcoin had just blown past 13,000 but was settling in I thought between 12,950 and 13,200. Little did I know going back to work coming home and taking a quick nap would change the entirety of this article. Practically everything I had written well with the price up around 13,700-13,800 it did not make much sense.
Crypto has had a ton going for it with Bitcoin being the shinning star with public companies buying coins or accepting it as payment. The IRS even come out and said if you were a HODLER you did not have to stay you had dealt in crypto for this year. All of this news along with the dollar retreating had poured gas onto the fire of Bitcoin.
I personally thought that Bitcoin would stall out in the low 13,000 range due to the rapid ascent and the need to the streak to take a breather. I am beginning to think though that if nothing changes over the next few days Bitcoin will go up to 14k where it should hit a psychological barrier. It is my belief it will get stuck there however several factors could rapidly change this.
The US election is honestly a mess and while it would be easy to say Biden will win the same was said about Hillary in 2016 so we have uncertainty there. COVID case numbers and the huge second wave hitting the US and Western Europe is another thing to keep an eye on. While the fatality rate has fallen considerably from the first wave this is a troubling sign. Adding in geopolitics with the Armenian/Azerbaijani flare up that’s continuing to get more and more out of control there is reasoning to think Bitcoin could kick the stock market trend completely and possibly hit 20k by the end of the year.
Up until the last week or so I thought that the psychological barriers that had to be taken down would ultimately prevent this from occurring. However, it seems more and more likely to occur. If the US has in anyway a contested election even if it is quickly fixed like the 2000 Presidential Election was Bitcoin has the ability to pop like gold would and the sky is the limit.
As it is though I do expect a sharper run up than a health pause/slide back for Bitcoin. As with any asset it cannot scream straight up forever and eventually enough people will be in the green to trigger a selling spree. What’s wreaking havoc is the social unrest, COVID and clear economic policy which each one alone could trigger a spike or a flash crash in the price. These next few weeks are going to be one heck of a roller coaster!
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