Mr. Buterin's Ethereum had a surge in price in February probably due to the anticipation of the 'Constantinople' hard fork that has now been completed and declared a success. However the bears quickly took control around the $160 horizontal resistance and pushed down the price. The RSI and Stochastic Oscillators were both overbought, fact that signaled us that the bulls were exhausted.
From a daily timeframe perspective ETH failed to retest the 200 SMA and it is now grinding between the EMAs as you can see in the chart below. It also printed a powerful bearish engulfing candlestick from which I believe we are still yet to see some follow-up. Probably heading for a retest of the $100 support if we break the green 55 EMA.
Heading into the lower timeframes we are now kind of breaking a descending triangle if you want to view it like that, but at the moment of writing this is not accompanied by volume, fact that makes me think twice before taking a breakout trade. Possible to be a falling wedge which statistically breaks out to the upside. As always I would wait for confirmation before taking any trade. ETH is now being held by the 200 EMA so I would get really bearish if we manage to break that. Furthermore we have a strong resistance at the 0.618 Fib retracement + $125 horizontal support + 200 SMA that creates a good confluence. If you are a scalper you should have that area in your eyes.
RSI might be showing a pretty strong 3 drive divergence if we close this 4 hour candle on a green note so that could generate a little bounce in confluence with the support I mentioned above. Stoch looks similar to the RSI, both of them are in the bearish control zone which indicates that the bears are in control at the moment.
Thank you for reading my analysis and if you have any suggestions, feedback or questions I highly encourage you to post them in the comments!
DISCLAIMER: This is NOT intended to be financial advice. The content in my articles strictly represents my personal technical analysis and views of the market.
**10% Discount on Bitmex fees for 6 months if you register using my link: https://www.bitmex.com/register/mlsHdh
**10% Discount on Deribit fees for 6 months: https://www.deribit.com/reg-4685.1421?q=home
*Buy me a coffee: 3CeAP2cuELpDiySJyPqj1jn9jbts2GC3U3 (btc address)