A depth analysis of bitcointalk.org speculation thread "The next 100x-1000x coin? " - Intro

A depth analysis of bitcointalk.org speculation thread "The next 100x-1000x coin? " - Intro


As seen in my previous post here in publish0x - Prologue -  I will provide a series of detailed analytics about predictions made in bitcointalk.org speculation thread "The next 100x-1000x coin? " .
This is a nice experiments able to provide a complete outlook of specific period "ICO MANIA" during August and December 2017.
Analyze the patterns of the market could give a clear advantage... let's see some data and interesting facts that could be obtained from these data.

TIMEFRAME =Aug 2017 - Dec 2017 [Actual value 17 Dec 2020]
POST EXAMINED = 1000

TOTAL PREDICTIONS =834
Newbie "" = 157
Jr. member "" = 3
member "" = 161
full member "" = 312 
senior = 135
Hero "" = 56
Legendary "" = 10

460bd7e816edd4ed6f2c81cfc12633f4b01381dd16a40651eff3b012dc9413bc.png

There is a massive participation of full members and newbie. Meanwhile Hero and Legendary have not so many predictions.
Participation of Junior members seem very low if compared with other ranks. 
I think these data are depicting two facts.
During this "era" a lot of newbies (18.82%) starts to invest in cryptocurrency and these predictions are a clear sign of this trend.
Legendary are rarely promoting altcoins or provide to much hype in a possible profit.

DEAD COIN PREDICTIONS
We will see next what is the rate of "dead" coin predictions. It means a coins delisted from coinmarketcap.com and without a website accessible. 
Mostly these tokens have not market. Some Erc-20 tokens have always a trading in Decentralized exchange but technically without a real market.
A total of 77/834 dead predictions were reported (10.83% of predictions have reported a total loss!)
Despite this is one of the interesting industries in the last years with very high revenue some people lose money.

This is distribution between users:

TOTAL DEAD PREDICTIONS =77/834
Newbie 9/157 dead 5,7%
Jr. member  1/3 33,3% Worst Rate1
member 16/161 9,9%
full member 43/312 13,7% Worst Rate2
senior  6/135 4,4% Best Rate2
Hero 1/56 1,7% Best Rate1
Legendary "" = 1/10 10%

65f08dc90304d5df4d3bd8a6d7949aa508ce14419230509f60d8e9d4f394015d.png

What is the reason behind of these failures? We will see later on a specific chapter only dedicated to Dead Coins! 
Just as note 178 predictions have been identified and excluded since project "Not Listed" but however still survive (or were not quoted at time of prediction by coinmarketcap). 

Now we can have a look on final results.Value are always calculated taking in count the value during prediction date.
The same coin could have a different result if has been posted in a different time.

NEGATIVE RESULTS
469/834 as today (17 Dec 2020) have reported a negative profit!
 This is more than half (56% )of the whole amount, that summed with Dead Coins give a final results of 65,4%. Probably this number despite is very big has a positive result indeed,  because some of these coins hyped were posted like a scam coin so easily identifiable (likewise account created ad hoc or recursive posts). Every Rank reported at least 50% of negative predictions. 

TOTAL Negative PREDICTIONS =469/834
Newbie 97/157 61,7 %
Jr. member  1/3 33,3%
member 88/161 54,6%
full member 174/312 55,7%
senior  71/135 52,5%
Hero 32/56 57,14%
Legendary "" = 6/10 60%

If you look inside these numbers some coins reported of these 469 negative outlook 129 were totally a mess with a total profit between -95% to 99,99%. Despite these coins have already a market, in just 3 years prices are totally collapsed. 408 of 469 negative predictions were bigger than 50% in lost! Only 4 of 469 negative predictions realized a slightly loss! (Less then 1%)

fa608998581980b2ce691a524413ba11f155e6c3da5b30dae46852b7b0a5f8b6.png

POSITIVE RESULTS
110/834 as today (17 Dec 2020) have reported a positive profit! 13,18% of the whole amount.
I am not too much surprised for this value because more and more coins were launched as pump and dump scheme, scam traps or just ICO Trap. 
Plus the market has granted success just few of altcoins.


TOTAL Positive PREDICTIONS =110/834
Newbie 22/157 14%
Jr. member  0/3 
member 21/161 13%
full member 38/312 12,1% Worst Rate2
senior  21/135 15,5% Best Rate2
Hero 6/56 10,7% Worst Rate1
Legendary "" = 2/10 20% Best Rate1

fffeee8ffce080a552f06ff0575d700db5442eb73a67b1ba62ab8371d74c2e07.png

Scenario probably will change if we take a look by the next year, probably this could be an interesting post for the future.
Here we can find the final answer about topic question"The next 100x-1000x coin? 

At Least 8 different coins reported a 10x. But no no one has touched 100x. The maximum has been 70x.
The same coin has been suggested in a different timeframe with a 1,33x ! We will see in depth this result on a specific post "Gain!" 

TOTAL PREDICTIONS =834
TOTAL Negative PREDICTIONS =469
TOTAL DEAD PREDICTIONS =77
TOTAL Positive PREDICTIONS =110
TOTAL Not Listed  = 8

What has really impressed to me is that some coins have been really able to over-perform bitcoin.
CAN YOU GUESS WHAT COIN? Leave a comment below



Prologue
Intro
Monero
Stellar
Chainlink
What happened to Btc?
Gain!
Top 10
Top 10 vs BTC
The winner
Top -90% loss
Rebranded coins
Dead Coins

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