Big Money

where is it going, the big question, is it supporting the rise, is it in profit taking mode, is it betting against traders??

well lets look at some data.

first we have ETF flows.

OK, Tit is still above zero and green and BTC price is moving along with ETF inflows, so we are good here.

now lets look at COT data (sep,22,2026) and see what it is doing.

Smart money is holding 4745 Long versus 12698 Short positions and 800 longs have been closed and 799 shorts have been added, so they are putting pressure on the price.

But Commercials, Swap dealers and others are buying, this could end up in a bullish divergence signal. if bitcoin manage to break the key resistance level we will have a short squeeze. 
 

Remember big data is not for trading one hour or smaller time frame, it shows the big slow moves. that is why we have technical analysis and look for confluence between these two.

and always consider geopolitical events that may put pressure on price , especially on market open in Monday, this may be the week counter trend move if it is not taken back in a day or two.  

Technical Analysis

As you can see prev. month low level is the root of a nearly vertical rise in price, we had a consolidation phase after it and a smaller rise. the Aqua rectangle zone is where limit orders may will be found and another rise is possible from that level.

 Here is a zoom in picture of Price Movements, Steel Blue rectangles versus Purple ones shows  a solid up trend that has been able to hold its initial rise for near a month and has risen again , but with less strength (remember COT data?), we should consider profit taking and geopolitical events as well and accept that price moves fast in impulses and slow in corrections.
I have shown the levels that I watch carefully to identify Bitcoin next move, and remember Yearly Open level is major Level that wont break easily so expect price to play around it, instead of breaking it in a single try.
the 2 yellow zones in the H4 chart is where i will make my mind.

Wishing you success and blessings, and remember: we trade based on probability, not certainty.

*Not financial advice. Always do your own research.*