Big Crypto

Big Crypto

Perspective, opinion, and commentary on bitcoin, altcoins, and cryptocurrency for people who want to focus on the big picture. Don't sweat the day-to-day. It's cryptocurrency - relax and enjoy the ride!


Bitcoin: Unsafe at Any Price

16 May 2022 4 minute read 4 comments MarkHelfman

Bitcoin’s price tumbled from $40,000 to $25,000 in one week.  While that’s not an extreme drop for bitcoin, it came at a bad time, when the market had no liquidity, little new money coming in, and a ton of leverage. Some people got wiped out when LUN...

My Most Bullish Scenario for Bitcoin

6 May 2022 2 minute read 2 comments MarkHelfman

Ah, crypto. The playground of the bulls and bears.  Which side do you fall on? Since the start of 2022, bears have dominated the conversation. They promise bitcoin’s price will drop to $30,000 or lower. 2018 all over again. Bear flag target is $21,00...

Is 2022 the End of Bitcoin’s Bull and Bear Markets?

2 May 2022 3 minute read 12 comments MarkHelfman

Almost six months after bitcoin’s price reached its all-time high and roughly ten months after its 2021 low of $28,500, people still argue about whether crypto is in a bull or bear market. What do those terms mean for an asset whose price goes up 100...

With the Crypto Market, Choose Your Conclusions Wisely

28 Apr 2022 3 minute read 2 comments MarkHelfman

Did you hear about Goblin Town? Apparently, the crypto market’s in it. What’s Goblin Town? “A dark, depressing place where dreams die and anguish reigns.” Where I come from, we call that a “day job.” I get it. Since the market reached its zenith on...

A New Data Model for Bitcoin: U2R

27 Apr 2022 1 minute read 6 comments MarkHelfman

Some say the Stock-to-Flow model is dead.  Not me. Even if S2F or S2Fx fail, we have lots of other models.  Four-year cycles. Hash cycles. Supercycles. Expanding cycles. Shrinking cycles. All sorts of multiples, moving averages, and extrapolations. ...

Bitcoin’s Data Models are Dead? Hardly

31 Mar 2022 2 minute read 3 comments MarkHelfman

Some think 2021 killed data models of bitcoin’s price because pretty much every prediction failed.  Stock-to-Flow promised $135,000 in December 2021 as a “worst-case scenario.” Oops. Bob Loukas’s Four-Year Cycle missed both the time and price of the...

Want to Get Ahead With Crypto? Seek Knowledge Not Expertise

18 Mar 2022 3 minute read 16 comments MarkHelfman

I get it. It’s crypto. You want somebody to tell you what’s going to happen next.  Just tell me whether the price will go up or down, Mark! I can’t tell you that.  I can tell you what I’ll do when the price goes up or down. I can give you perspective...

Why the Crypto Market Always Seems to Let You Down

15 Mar 2022 3 minute read 10 comments MarkHelfman

When you entered the crypto market, you found a lot of excitement. Data models predicted riches. YouTube and Twitter told you the market would explode to the upside. It doesn’t feel that way today, but it should. Since last summer, you’ve stood on th...

With Bitcoin, Embrace Uncertainty

11 Mar 2022 3 minute read 4 comments MarkHelfman

Sometimes I take calls from people who want to consult or get my advice on cryptocurrency and the crypto markets.  Do you know what question I dread the most? Mark, what do you think will happen? I’m happy to answer and appreciate the confidence yo...

Forget About Bitcoin's Price Predictions. Do This Instead

11 Mar 2022 2 minute read 8 comments MarkHelfman

Bitcoin’s price went 6% higher in November 2021 than it did in April 2021. Its lowest price in January 2022 was 15% higher than its lowest price in June 2021. By crypto logic, that means our next all-time high will come at $73,000 in June 2022, 6% hi...