This Is NOT Investment Advice
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Some ground rules:
- content published here related to Reg CF and A+ merely represents my own views and opinions on potential investments that I may or may not make, this has nothing to do with any type of investment advice or encouragement
- Unpredictable. . . . . . . . I'll drift off far, far away and do my own thing. I might act very aggressively with certain investments and not as much with others. I might explore something completely out of nowhere and unusual and ignore something "so obvious like AI".
- I'm very picky. The earlier the better. "Diversified" with these too much years ago initially. SURVIVAL is the most important factor. Not chasing an "AI Powered blah, blah, blah" already valued at $20B. I am having trouble keeping up with AI and don't see any type of edge to play other than proprietary tools already priced up.
- If I don't understand it I'm out. This happens a lot because I am not that smart.
- Seeking winner takes all or most scenarios where a firm can slide into a position where it has a de facto lock on certain economic value within an ecosystem or industry. It's hard to find these. I do make other CF and A+ investments but will drop the hammer if/when I find a precise target (AtomBeam, Liquid Piston).
- Every move I make could completely fail
Some recent stuff:
Yen Carry Trade Interpretation and Consequences
Full Disclosure: I participated in the first round on SE.
I want to make the brief description for this one crystal clear.
- As stated previously, I entered into Cytonics and am adding here KNOWING that this is a swinging for the fences move. I fully and COMPLETELY acknowledge and accept this is a potentially lopsided outcome.
- Way I see this one, at this point it either hits in a very, very, very big way or it struggles and is sold off for its IP in 3-5 years
- Given that nobody has been harmed or injured in Phase I, the odds are extremely appealing to me (especially given my existing position)
- JNJ owns about 12%
- In my view via this CF/A+ and other sources they can get the cash to bring this to the finish line so we'll know if "we have it" or not, all of this is pointless if they can never get funded enough to see this through
- Truly a "Zero to One" as this is a completely new and novel way of attacking osteoarthritis. Before now there existed a set of OA treatments. Now there is a completely new one (possibly), not just another similar tag along. Poof - now it's here a real thing (possibly) like magic. 0 to 1.
- if they make it, could be a monstrous winner
- has very modest cash flow ongoing and licensing percolating
- I'm not concerned about Discounted Cash Flow models and opinions of the valuation. OA is a huge market and there is low overall patient satisfaction.
- To me this is a Yes/No question - does Cytonics have a credible chance of OWNING a completely new way of treating OA?
This thing could absolutely fail. But, in this moment the scales are tilted shall we say in such a manner that for me it is worth it to take this risk.
