Explore a formula for predicting the block proposals of your Algorand node, analyzing factors like block speed, stake, and AP

Predict the number of blocks your node might propose?

By 1337Dude | 1337Dude | 23 Jan 2024

Anticipate the number of blocks your node could potentially propose. As a node runner, your active involvement in consensus-building enhances the Algorand network's security. Yet, are you equipped with the knowledge to predict the potential block proposals from your node? Let's delve into the process of collecting data and calculating the probability of your node proposing a block.

Gathering Data and Calculating Probability of Proposing a block

In Q1 2024, 70,000 ALGOs have been allocated from Folks Finance’s Targeted DeFi Rewards to encourage participation in Algorand consensus. Weekly, the current Leaderboard is published on Folks Finance Discord and Telegram, showcasing the Total Participate Stake and the stake for each wallet. Here is part of the Leaderboard.

Here presents a straightforward formula designed to gauge the likelihood of generating a block, offering valuable insights into your upcoming block proposals.

Probability of propose a block per day = ( 1 - ( 1 - AB/TPS )^( 60*60*24 / BS))

Here, the variables are as follows:

Block Speed (BS) = 2.9 sec (from Algoexplore, se image below)

Total Participate Stake (TPS) =1,465,710,369 (from Leaderboard above)

Your Committed Algo Balance/Stake (AB) = 15,000 (from Leaderboard above or from Folks Finance, se below)

This projection will provide you with insights into your future block proposals. Using the formula above Statistically, I will propose:
( 1 - ( 1 - 15,000 / 1,465,710,369 )^( 60*60*24 / 2.9)) = 0.26 blocks per day or one every fourth day.

You can also observe your commitment on Folks Finance, such as in the example of G10, with a balance matching the one on the leaderboard.

Monitoring the number of blocks

By integrating your Escrow address into allo.info, monitoring the number of blocks you've proposed becomes effortless. Depending on your stake, there might be intervals between block proposals; hence, it's advisable to ensure your node is actively voting.

Here is the current status for the given example: 28 blocks were proposed during P9, and 6 have been proposed so far during P10

It's easy to calculate that my node proposes blocks as expected according to the formula and also predict when it statistically should be proposed next.