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Nvidia Is Down 29% From Its Record — What the Market Is Pricing In

Nvidia Is Down 29% From Its Record — What the Market Is Pricing In

Nvidia closed Wednesday at $173.73, up 2.87% on the day — then fell about 8.6% after hours to roughly $159. The stock is down 6.85% for 2026 and about 29% below its October 6 record of $243.37.

Behind the move is a week of headlines: a board investigation, letters from Congress, analyst downgrades, and a shareholder lawsuit. Here is what the numbers say, and what is still only a report.

## The week in numbers

- Wednesday's close was $173.73, up $4.84 or 2.87%, after opening at $172.80 and trading between $170.77 and $177.54. Tuesday's close was $168.89, with an intraday low of $166.95.

- After hours, the stock slipped to about $158.81 — down 8.59% from the close, per Finnhub — and was quoted near $159.99 at 7:30 p.m. ET.

- Over five sessions the stock is down 15.95%; over one month, 23.24%. The 52-week range is $164.27 to $243.37, and market capitalisation is about $4.31 trillion.

- Wednesday's bounce was sector-wide, not Nvidia-specific: Micron rose 11.9%, AMD 7.3%, Intel 7.5% and Broadcom 4.0%, after CoreWeave's earnings beat eased worries about AI spending.

## What moved it

- On November 8, Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation into reports that Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The probe is run by Joon H. Kim, a former acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, hired through Wachtell Lipton. The board says it has "no reason to believe" national security or company secrets were compromised.

- On November 4, three House committee chairs — Brian Mast (Foreign Affairs), John Moolenaar (Select Committee on the CCP), and Rick Crawford (Intelligence) — asked Huang to attend a closed-door briefing on November 18 about Nvidia's safeguards and his interactions with Megaspeed executive Alice Huang. The deadline to answer was November 11. It passed with no public answer from Huang himself; he offered to send Nvidia's general counsel instead, according to Reuters. No subpoena has been issued. The letter is a request, not a subpoena, and it lapses when the new Congress convenes in January.

- On Tuesday evening, Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota, a senior Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, called on Huang to step down — the first such call from a sitting senator.

- On Wednesday night, the Wall Street Journal reported that the board is preparing to discuss Huang's future and could meet as soon as today to decide it. That meeting has now happened: Reuters (a source familiar with the matter) and CNN (two sources) report the board met late Wednesday to decide whether to oust Huang, and CNN reports some expectation among Trump administration insiders that the meeting would result in his ouster. No outcome has been announced as of Thursday ~13:30 HKT, and Nvidia has not commented. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the board has been working with an outside firm to identify potential replacements.

- On Monday, shareholders filed a proposed class action — Kistenmacher v. Nvidia Corp., No. 5:26-cv-13448 — in federal court in San Jose, accusing Nvidia and Huang of concealing risks around the reported relationship. At least four firms are now investigating.

## What is actually alleged — and what is not

- The New York Times reported on October 29 that U.S. intelligence concluded Alice Huang was a Chinese intelligence asset, and that surveillance confirmed contact with Jensen Huang. The Times does not assert he knowingly participated. China denies the allegation. Neither Alice Huang nor Megaspeed has been charged.

- Megaspeed affiliates bought at least $4.8 billion of Nvidia gear between June 2024 and February 2026, while under a chip-diversion probe.

- Donald Trump has defended Huang, calling him an "amazing guy," and said the FBI is investigating. Trump said Huang denied knowing the woman was allegedly connected to Chinese intelligence. Chuck Schumer posted that Trump's defense was troubling and demanded a full accounting.

- In a message to employees, Huang acknowledged a personal relationship and apologized: "There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry."

## The analysts

- Baird downgraded Nvidia to Neutral on Wednesday and cut its price target to $200 from $500. Morgan Stanley removed the stock as a top pick, while keeping its Overweight rating.

- The downgrades landed the same day the stock bounced — a sign that, for now, the market is trading the headlines, not the quarter. Nvidia reports third-quarter earnings on November 17, guided at about $108 billion in revenue.

## What to watch next

- Today: whether the board announces an outcome — it met late Wednesday (US time) and nothing has been announced as of ~13:30 HKT Thursday. Check again before the 16:37 publish; if an outcome lands, lead with it.

- Nov 17: third-quarter earnings, after the close.

- Nov 18: the requested closed-door briefing in Room 2172 of the Rayburn Building.

- Prediction markets put 88% odds on Huang leaving his position by resignation or removal by year-end, according to Polymarket figures cited by Reuters (up from 77% in the Journal's earlier citation).

For now, the trade is simple to describe and hard to call: a stock down 29% from its record, a CEO whose future is an open question, and an earnings report five days away that the whole market will read as a verdict on the AI trade itself.

This article is not financial advice. Figures are from market data and reporting as of Thursday, November 12, 2026, about 13:35 HKT (board-meeting confirmation and 88% Polymarket odds updated then; prices still Wednesday's close). The board report is the Wall Street Journal's, citing people familiar with the matter, and has not been confirmed by Nvidia. The espionage allegations are as reported by The New York Times and others; the Times does not assert Jensen Huang knowingly participated, China denies the allegation, and no charges have been filed against Alice Huang, Megaspeed, Jensen Huang, or Nvidia.

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