SOL is sitting near $106.94 after sweeping $101.56, and I’m treating this as a reaction bounce, not a trend change. The 4H chart is still a staircase of lower highs: $124.99, then roughly $123, then a rejection near $113.30.
Buyers showed up at the extreme. Sellers still run the tape everywhere else.
How We Got Here
The $117.20 zone was the trigger. It’s the brightest band on the CoinGlass liquidation heatmap, and price lost it around October 7. After that, SOL sliced through $114 and kept bleeding into the low $106s by the 8th.
That’s what a liquidity-driven flush looks like. Stops sit under the range, they get hit, and forced closes feed the next leg down.
The relief rally topped near $113.30 and failed. Price then rolled over into $101.56, where a large green bubble printed on the Large Trades layer. That’s real buy-side absorption at the lows. I’d still call it a reaction until price proves otherwise.
Levels I’m Watching
Resistance:
- $108.80: the current 4H high and the first reclaim test
- $110.50 to $112.20: old liquidity bands, the first real supply
- $113.30: the last lower high; a 4H close above it breaks the sequence
- $117.20: breakdown origin and the brightest heatmap band, a likely order block
- $123.00 to $124.50: the densest cluster on the map, where the heavy short liquidations sit
Support:
- $105.50: the bottom of the current 4H candle
- $103.00 to $101.50: the sweep zone with the green absorption bubble
- $100.00: the psychological level, and I see no dense bands visible below $101.56 on this heatmap range
What Positioning Is Telling Me
Net Longs on CoinGlass reads -4.41M with a delta of -103.01K. It slid from around -2.5M on October 4 and has been flat near the lows since the 10th.
Longs got closed all the way down, and the line hasn’t turned up yet. Selling pressure looks like it’s slowing, but nothing has flipped. The first real tell would be a positive delta.
I’m not quoting funding rates or open interest here because they’re not on this chart, and I won’t guess. Check them before you press anything. Cooling OI with neutral-to-negative funding supports a squeeze higher. Rising OI into $110 to $112 usually means a bull trap.
Bullish Case
SOL holds $101.50 and reclaims $108.80 on a 4H close, ideally with Net Longs delta turning positive. That opens $110.50 to $112.20, then the $113.30 lower high. A 4H close above $113.30 breaks the downtrend structure and puts $117.20 in play.
- Setup: long on a retest of $102.50 to $103.00, or on 4H acceptance above $108.80
- Stop: below $100.90
- Targets: $108.80, $112.00, then $117.20
- Risk-reward: roughly 3R to $108.80 and 4.5R to $112.00 from a $102.80 entry
- Invalidation: 4H close below $101.50
Bearish Case
SOL gets rejected at $110.50 to $112.20 and loses $105.50 on a 4H close. That drags price back to $101.50. A clean break there likely slides toward $100, because there’s little visible liquidity underneath to slow it.
- Setup: short on a rejection at $111.00 to $112.00
- Stop: above $113.50
- Targets: $105.50, then $101.50
- Risk-reward: roughly 3R to $105.50 and 5R to $101.50 from $111.50
- Invalidation: 4H close above $113.30
Research References
I built this read from the following sources, with no outside articles copied:
- Binance SOL/USDT perpetual futures, 4H candles (price, range and volume)
- CoinGlass Liquidation Heatmap on SOL/USDT (liquidity bands)
- CoinGlass Large Trades layer (the $1.17M max order and 4.02M total volume readout)
- CoinGlass Net Longs indicator (-4.41M, delta -103.01K)
- Chart data as of October 13, 2026
Bias stays bearish below $113.30, with $101.50 as the line that decides everything. I only want longs on a retest of $102 to $103 or a confirmed 4H reclaim of $108.80. Otherwise I’m selling the $110.50 to $112.20 rejection.
Want the original breakdown, with the chart annotations and my full level map? Read it on TechnoLoger Insights, my Blogger site.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational and research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).
