In a recent article on Forbes "Bitcoin Could Be About To Surge To $100,000 After Stock-To-Flow Update Revealed" by Billy Bambrough, Bambrough discusses the struggle for Bitcoin to reach and hold $10,000 as well as how cryptocurrencies are one of the best investing assets of 2020 while remaining quite volatile.
However, a he also states a widely-respected analyst nicked PlanB created a stock-to-flow bitcoin pricing model and revealed the chart:
Now, I am not a particular fan of this type of analysis, however I implore the optimism. But the reasoning for the exponential gain explained by Bambrough is that stock-to-flow pricing is calculated by how much Bitcoin is already in existence and how much Bitcoin is being produced. Bambrough notes gold and silver for their excellent to good stock to flow values.
The current Bitcoin stock-to-flow ratio is 50 ever since last month when Bitcoin had its third halving. Bitcoin payouts for miners went from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. The glory days are over... or are they?
The analyst, PlanB, predicted that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 by Christmas of 2021, saying "otherwise all bets are off and the model would crash", which he highly doubts. Bambrough says people are predicting a "fourth crypto cycle" or "crypto spring" which would end this "crypto winter" we are in and make the current price spike radically.
I wish I shared that level of optimism, though I am quite optimistic!
I could see it going over $20,000 and would love it, but I don't see him discussing the US economy being in the toilet or how COVID-19 continues to impact everyone in the world...
If this happens, it's very likely many altcoins such as BAT (Basic Attention Token), XLM (Stellar), XTZ (Tezos), ETH (Ethereum) and many others would also have an exponential increase in value.
That is best case scenario and is exactly what I am hoping for!
However, there are too many things not being factored or discussed in the article and I feel that price is grossly exaggerated, though it's far from impossible. With fiat being down, I think anything is possible... and with continued global support, an extremely high price tag for BTC may be inevitable.
What do you think, let me know in the comments!
-Thomas Wolf
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