The opinion polls consistently show that Keir Starmer's Labour Party holds a significant lead over Rishi Sunak's Conservatives, but the public's perception of Sunak remains unclear. While he is seen as rich, smooth, and hardworking, he is still not strongly associated with the Conservative Party. Sunak appears more like a caretaker manager, lacking direction and permanence.

Voters are judging the Conservatives based on their 14 years in power, and it is challenging to see how the Tories can recover. As a result, there is a growing sense that the Conservatives are preparing for defeat, with a significant number of Tory MPs standing down before the election. Attention is shifting to the post-election battles within the Conservative Party, as it grapples with the reasons for potential defeat. Some within the party mistake an economic problem for a cultural one, and Brexit has exacerbated the disenchantment.

The Tories' inability to fully embrace Brexit and their pursuit of a European-style social democracy has disappointed their supporters. The Telegraph and other conservative factions are seeking a new champion for Brexit, but there are doubts that Rishi Sunak can fulfill that role. The Conservative Party appears to be experiencing another moment of discomfort with modernity and the realities of modern Britain.

Even though David Cameron attempted to change the party, his legacy is fading, and the Tories' internal culture war is likely to intensify, preparing for arguments within the party in opposition rather than government. This suggests that the election outcome may align with these trends.

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