Hello
Today I will present you my analyze of the Bitcoin price after halving and why It won't rise immediately after it.
I heard a lot from people around me and my friends that Bitcoin in a few days after halving will go up to next ATH (All Time High).
If anyone doesn't know what Bitcoin halving is, I will show you this briefly.
After every 210,000 blocks, Bitcoin goes through a process called “halving.” This mechanism was integrated into the protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto himself. After a protocol goes through “halving,” it cuts the supply of new Bitcoins in half, halving the miner's block production rewards, as well.
What does it mean?
Every 210 000 blocks, the Bitcoin reward for miners is cut by half.
Look at this screen:
As you can see Bitcoin halving is going to cut reward from 12.5 Bitcoins per block to 6.25 Bitcoins per block. Halving provides that Bitcoin is not inflationary currency like FIAT ( USD, EUR, etc.). Bitcoin is deflationary currency. There will be no more than 21 000 000 BTC in circulation. We should also remember that a lot of BTC has been lost forever. Some people forgot their seeds, some lost private keys, etc. So these Bitcoins can't be recovered.
Ok, Let's talk about the price of Bitcoin.
In this post I will discuss all the halvings that have taken place in the past.
First halving was in November 28, 2012. After that BTC price didn't rise much. As you can see the price reached new ATH after a year.
So BTC rose from around $13 to around $1000. It was a huge increase during the year. That was a 7500% increase. So if you invested $1000 you got after a year $76 000.
Now, look at the halving in July 9, 2016.
After that halving BTC rose from $650 to $19 665. That was also huge increase around 3000%. So now if you invested $1000 you got after a year $31 000.
It wasn't that huge like it was in 2012 but still 3000% in a year are really nice. If someone HODL from 2012 where the price was around
$13 he earned 151169%. So $1000 invested makes you $1 512 690.
Wow. If you had BTC in that time, you could be a millionaire!
And now the question arises. Why the BTC price rising one year after halving?
Of course, no one knows the answer and we can only guess. But in my opinion halving is already included in the BTC price.
Since we all know that halving takes place every 4 years and we are able to determine the perfect day, hour, minute and second of this event. Everyone knows exactly what is happening that the bitcoin block divides by half.
We know why such an event is and we know that it will never be postponed. It will always be held every 4 years. This cannot be changed because Bitcoin is programmed like this. This event is actually included in the price and therefore the market does not react. We see it on the example of previous years.
The price after halving for the first few months practically stands still. It is not until later months that we observe its increase. Therefore, in my opinion, the price of Bitcoin will not increase after halving. At least to the levels everyone dreams about. Remember that what I am saying is not certain information. These are only my thoughts resulting from the analysis of previous halvings. No one has a crystal ball to predict the future. Otherwise each of us would be a millionaire.
