CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Aleman, based on historical patterns, has predicted that the price of the leading cryptocurrency will reach $205,097 — marking the peak of the current market cycle.
According to him, metrics such as MVRV, HODL Waves, SOPR, and exchange reserve dynamics are useful — they “provide insight into what’s happening on-chain and enable well-informed decision-making.”
“The constant search for micro-signals to extract insights, while often useful, can sometimes distract from broader cyclical factors that truly impact Bitcoin’s long-term dynamics,” Aleman noted.
The analyst suggests paying attention to the digital gold’s return chart since 2011, which shows a recurring cycle: “three years of growth are followed by a year of consolidation, corresponding to the four-year halving rhythm.”
“The significance of the current phase,” the expert suggested, “is that according to this metric, if the growth pace typical of the third year continues, Bitcoin could rise by 120% in 2025. Starting from $93,226, the price could reach $205,097 — potentially becoming the peak of the cycle.”
He believes that if the trend continues, 2025 could become “the third consecutive bullish year,” thus marking the end of another growth phase.
“This thesis is supported by other cyclical indicators — in particular, realized capitalization, which continues moving toward new all-time highs in 2025,” Aleman emphasized.
The expert added that the annual return chart helps filter out market noise and focus on the cyclical nature of the leading cryptocurrency.
“It clearly illustrates that beyond micro-metrics and short-term candlestick patterns, there is a structural rhythm that Bitcoin follows with remarkable consistency: three years of growth are followed by a year of contraction,” the analyst noted.
According to him, a long-term perspective helps investors “stay calm during market fluctuations and better align their actions with the asset’s historical behavior.”
As a reminder, CryptoQuant analysts have noted that Bitcoin whales show no strong intention of taking profits.
