The scenario is based on the dips and the tops since we started the bear market of 2022, and to make a bottom it took us 77 days, and to make a top which is the retracement of the bearish wave it took us took 63 days.
More details about the bearish scenario: https://www.publish0x.com/the-king-of-crypto/btc-technical-analysis-on-daily-and-weekly-bottom-speculatio-xgjjyzk
I see next week a big red Weekly candle of -$6000 to -$7000 the equivalent of -30% +or- in a week which is quite possible to do the big cleaning of the Longs bellow the 17.6K , and it's possible to hit $14,677 on the 50% fibo.
I think the trigger for the crash will be a very sharp rise in interest rates so +1%, or otherwise just +0.75% as expected but with a fed that will not be happy and will continue to raise rates for the next 6 months at a year, then fear will settle in the market, the dollar will appreciate in value which is already the case.
I am aware that we can do the opposite, I am ready to turn my red jacket over to put it on the green side when the big bullish signal arrives, so at least get above the MA 62 Weekly (in blue) with volumes.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/aaVpEUl3/
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