“Follow your bliss and don't be afraid and doors will open where you didn't know they were going to be.”
- Joseph Campbell
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Happy Saturday Folks! We keep asking about the bottom and I am calling it - it is IN! Of course this is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE so if you decide to take action on what I say, shame on you; DYOR! Now, let's see what the data shows us?
Monday the price of Bitcoin was trading around $20,231.26 and the most covered news was Cardano Vasil upgrade successfully launched on testnet, Tesla writing down $440MM worth on it's BTC holding, Circle denying that USDC is in trouble, and Vauld halting client withdrawals as the CeFi Contagion raged on. There was a good mix of good and bad news as Bitcoin found its support at $19K with whales heavily buying the dip. Indicators started flashing that the bottom was in. At the same time we got news that whales were dumping and some key metrics were pointing to $15K price floor.
On Tuesday, the hardened HODLers were HODLing strong! News sentiment continued to turn positive with the Bitcoin taker buy/sell ratio short-term bull signal going off, reserve risk fell to 2015 levels, shrimps were accumulating sats, a double bottom at $19.5K was created, another key indicator that timed previous market bottoms suggested that $BTC is highly undervalued, and largest ever monthly withdrawal from exchanges in June. The most covered news of that day was Jim Cramer's belief that the Crypto "implosion' wouldn't stop below $1T (umm I think he is the ultimate bottom signal)
By Wednesday, we got word of yet another bankruptcy and this time it was a stinger: Voyager. All is not lost yet and there is a lot of work to be done so do not jump to conclusions about what "might" happen - wait. News sentiment continued in the right direction - Positive. Bitcoin didn't fair too bad against traditional major stocks as it popped 7.5%, $BTC made its 3rd attempt to break above $20.8K as it sprung toward $23K and pulled back, and the paper hands continued to get purged. In addition to the Voyager bankruptcy news, the most covered news was Mike McGlone outlook on the market, saying it will perform better in the second half of the year, Wolf of Wall Street saying BUY, more Musk companies accepting DOGE, Riot Blockchain moving out of NYC, and the Short ETF gaining 300%; I hope they get squeezed!
Right over the hump on Thursday, the market begin to heat up as Filip Karadjordjevic, Serbian Prince, indicated that an Arab country could adopt Bitcoin "sooner than we think." Apparently the loved that because $BTC continued to trade above $20K as some believed it could spike by 10%. Massive Bitcoin outflows continued to rock exchanges, spelling ultra-bullish sentiments for Bitcoin. Circular analysis suggest a bottom is near as 55% of crypto investors chose to HODL as prices collapsed. Most covered news was about Celsius fully paying off its Bitcoin loans, FDIC probing Voyager, Genesis revealed exposure to 3AC, and Solana ecosystem getting sued.
As the week came to a close on Friday, there was more "bottom" talk. The news sentiment was overwhelming positive as Bitcoin reclaimed $22K. Some believe a 20% rally is on the way, Fear & Greed index recovered, the Adam and Eve pattern suggested that BTC price could rise 30% by October, on track for the biggest weekly gain in 9 months, etc etc etc. Bottom line - I truly believe the bottom is in. Most covered news was Celsius was accused by a former money manager KeyFi of fraud and being a ponzi scheme and Tether said it liquidated Celsius loan without incurring any loss. In addition, Marathon Q2 Bitcoin production was down 44$, and US Fed Vice Chairwoman Brainard doesn't like what she is seeing in Crypto.
Currently the price of Bitcoin is trading around $21,659.00 up about 12% for the past 7 days. Folks, what a week eh?! I've laid out what I see and I encourage you to dig through the news and find what helps you. There is a lot going on but, don't stop watching the show because it's about to get good. IF I am right and this is the bottom, you should know what you should do. I am going to be stacking sats that's for sure and hopefully I can stack some Bitcoin as a result!
PODCASTS OF THE WEEK
- Stephan Livera Podcast: SLP390 Dan McArdle - Which Bitcoin Narratives Are Dead?
- The Wolf Of All Streets: Why A Bear Market Is The Best Time To Invest | Haseeb Qureshi, Dragonfly Capital
- Bankless: Leaving the Bitcoin Religion with Nic Carter
- The Wolf Of All Streets: Bitcoin & Ethereum Will Never Die | 99% Of Tokens Will | Jeff Garzik, Co-Founder Of Bloq
- The Pomp Podcast: #1036 Darius Dale On Why The Fed Will Tighten Until Something Breaks
