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Happy Saturday Folks! Last week Bitcoin was down nearly $2K and as I type Bitcoin is trading at $43,765.01 and for the week (M-F) Bitcoin was down $1,329.80; week over week it's down $1,785.02. The best performing asset in the past 7 days was $BTC - up 5.12% in position #1 on Coinmarketcap.com. Two weeks ago the Fear and Greed Index was at 68 and today it's 70.
Keep reading, watching, and listening with me each and every week!
MY HOT TAKE
Most covered news of the week was Bitcoin rising past $45,000 and targeted $48K amid US spot bitcoin ETF approval anticipation; $73M in short liquidated.(10) However as you've seen the market is being pulled all over the place due to our anticipation or denial of the Spot Bitcoin ETF. At the 11th hour, Better Markets is urging the SEC to deny the ETF.(2) So, by the hour the sentiment appears to change depending on who you are listening too. Now it appears BlackRock believes their ETF application will be approved on Wednesday.(2)
We kicked off the year with predictions and throughout the year I will come back to this to see how they faired. Will Bitcoin reach all-time highs in 2024?
- Mark Mobius: $60,000
- Bit Mining: $75,000
- CoinShares: $80,000
- AllianceBernstein: $80,000
- Nexo: $100,000
- Matrixport: $125,000
Leave me a comment on where you think the price could end the year.
Bullish
Meltem Demirors says BTC’s run-up since November is being primarily driven by the the inflow of funds into publicly listed BTC miners which are enjoying increased fundamental strength and hitting all-time highs in terms of hash rate. Morgan Creek Capital founder and CEO Mark Yusko is saying that the crypto industry faces positive prospects in 2024; it's “going to be an incredibly powerful” year for crypto, aided by the alignment of various factors.(2) CNBC’s Jim Cramer flips bullish on Bitcoin, says BTC here to stay after ‘remarkable comeback.’(3) Investor Brian Kelly believes a bull market that will last for more than one year has begun for the cryptocurrency market.(2) 20% Chance we are in the middle of a ‘gigantic bubble cycle’ in the Crypto market, says Ex-Goldman Sachs exec Raoul Pal. Bitcoin (BTC) has witnessed its most substantial surge in transactions exceeding $100,000 in nearly two years, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez. Omega candle for Bitcoin (BTC) price Is very real, believes Samson Mow.
Bearish
Widely followed economist Alex Krüger is issuing a warning to traders about Bitcoin (BTC), saying that he believes the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot market BTC ETFs will be a sell-the-news event. Executive Steve Weiss with $500 Million wealth reveals he sold Bitcoin, saying “I don't believe in Bitcoin. I still don't see a use case or an end market.” Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin's bull run could face a 20-30% correction.(6)
ETF NEWS
Crypto asset manager Bitwise said that an unnamed investor wants to seed hundreds of millions of dollars into its planned spot market Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF). Fidelity will charge 0.39% to shareholders of its spot Bitcoin ETF, whereas Galaxy/Invesco will waive fees for six months before charging 0.59% afterward. BlackRock expected to seed ETF with $10M worth of BTC. Advisors Preferred Trust, which is already looking to gain the SEC’s permission to invest up to 15% of its AuM in Bitcoin-related ETFs like Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF. Non-crypto owners more likely to invest if spot bitcoin ETF gets approved, poll shows. Goldman Sachs is in talks to play the key role of being an "authorized participant" for BlackRock and Grayscale's bitcoin ETFs, if the SEC approves them, according to people familiar with the situation. Nasdaq to meet with SEC today to discuss spot bitcoin ETFs.(4) Cboe approves registration for listing Fidelity spot Bitcoin ETF — no SEC approval yet.(2) The SEC is close to deciding on spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Polymarket bets indicating an 88% chance of approval.
Issuers have fixed three of the SEC's remaining concerns for spot bitcoin ETFs.(2) Grayscale and VanEck has filed form 8-A with the SEC and registered securities to launch its spot Bitcoin ETF.(2) Tuttle Capital proposes 6 ETFs that ‘magnify’ spot Bitcoin ETF performance. Only 39% of financial advisers believe a 2024 Bitcoin ETF will be approved: Bitwise.(3)
ETF VOICES
CBOE’s John Palmer said that potential bitcoin ETF approvals would “pave the way” for pension funds to invest in a spot bitcoin ETF and promote derivatives growth.(2) Andrew Kang, one of the leading names in the cryptocurrency trading world, says Bitcoin Spot ETF Approval: “Still Not Priced In.”
SEC will approve a spot bitcoin ETF as a 'political necessity,' says TD Cowen. SEC delaying spot bitcoin ETFs ‘not impossible,’ but unlikely: Balchunas. Cryptocurrency journalist Jacquelyn Melinek speaks - “According to sources very close to the subject, SEC will approve Bitcoin spot ETFs, big day tomorrow.” A go-ahead from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could trigger $10 billion in inflows to Bitcoin ETFs in the first year, says Bloomberg's James Seyffart.
Bitcoin is trading on ETF news, but analysts caution on macro headwinds. Bitcoin spot ETF approvals becoming a sell-the-news event is the most likely scenario this month, according to K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde who suggests a 75% likelihood of this outcome versus 20% for approval inflows propelling prices higher and a 5% probability that the filings are denied. Simeon Hyman, a global investment strategist at ProShares, has highlighted the deficiencies in the spot Bitcoin market, citing discrepancies in prices across exchanges and risks associated with various platforms.
Bitcoin ETF race will push issuers to disclose addresses — Samson Mow. Jihan Wu, founder of Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer and crypto financial services firm Matrixport, said that the widespread dissemination of a report claiming that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may not be approved in January was “not planned by Matrixport and is beyond our control."(2)
Check out NLW's Weekly Recap.
Well that is a wrap for me folks, until next weekend Be Smart. Be Safe. Stack Sats. HODL!
THE WEEDS
Monday the price of Bitcoin closed at $45,225.00 and the most covered news of the day was Crypto phishing scams took almost $300M from 324k victims in 2023.(4)
Podcast of the Day: 203 - ETH in 2024 | Bankless
Tuesday the price of Bitcoin closed at $45,164.40 and the most covered news of the day was Bitcoin rose past $45,000 and targeted $48K amid US spot bitcoin ETF approval anticipation; $73M in short liquidated.(10)
Podcast of the Day: Aleks Svetski - Bitcoin is Uber Money | Bitcoin Matrix
By Wednesday (Humpday) the price of Bitcoin closed at $43,186.00 and the most covered news of the day was Michael Saylor commences plan to sell $216M worth of MicroStrategy stock options to buy more Bitcoin personally.(5)
Podcast of the Day: SELL TIME? BTC ETF Faces Decision Day! | Crypto Town Hall | TWOAS
Right over the hump on Thursday the price of Bitcoin closed at $43,578.60 and the most covered news of the day was only 39% of financial advisers believe a 2024 Bitcoin ETF will be approved: Bitwise.(3)
Podcast of the Day: Banking Bitcoin with Allen Farrington & Eric Yakes | WBD
As the week came to a close on Friday the price of Bitcoin closed at $43,895.20 and the most covered news of the day was Bitcoin facing crucial $1B option expiring as ETF approval rumors swirl but it rebounds above $44K as Spot BTC ETF approval looked increasingly likely.(4)
Podcast of the Day: Did a Matrixport Report Really Send BTC Crashing? | The Breakdown
WEEKEND NEWS
Honduran special economic zone adopts Bitcoin as unit of account.
Trading guru John Bollinger, along with other traders, appears to be bullish in his forecast believing a breakout is coming soon; $2.5B has flowed back into the Crypto markets. Of course with the ETF news the financial elite are finally paying more attention to Bitcoin. Meltem Demirors and Noelle Acheson talked about it on CNBC saying it's high stakes and that there will be fierce battle; not a sell the news event.
But just as we are all getting excited, now it looks like Dennis M. Kelleher, the CEO of Better Markets, is telling the SEC not to approve the Spot Bitcoin ETF applications.(2) However, all of the exchanges have filed their 19b-4 forms and it appears all lights are green for an approval of 11 firms applications next week; 5% chance it won't get approved.(8) Gabor Gurbacs says that the ETFs solves the unit bias psychology challenge since people don't like owning a fraction of anything.(2)
Someone (Justin Sun and other Whales accumulating over $180M) is excited about Ethereum - as SpotOnChain reveals a huge purchase of $48 million in 30 minutes by ‘Whale 0x931’ on 05 Jan 2024; a mysterious whale used USDT and USDC to acquire 21,192 ETH for a $2,265 average price.(2) In addition, the potential Bitcoin ETF approval should lift all boats as $ETH price eyes 75% upside in the months ahead. Solana (SOL) primed to implode by 80% and sink to $20, predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Max Keiser; I wonder if he is shorting it? DOGE Whales appear active this weekend as Dogecoin prepares to land on the moon; literally.
Coinbase is looking to compete in the derivatives market overseas by offering futures and options trading.(3) $1B in $BTC have left Kraken ahead of the ETF announcement; what's going on? Not sure.
In legal matters DCG confirms that they have settled their debt with Genesis to the tune of $700M.(5) Michael Saylor took to X to tell folks to be careful of deepfake and AI generated videos of him promoting crypto. If anyone tells you they are giving you free Bitcoin or can make you money with Bitcoin run!
Someone felt generous and sent 26.9 $BTC worth $1.2M to Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet.(3)
Zengo Wallet challenges hackers to take up to 10 BTC and will also provide information on the three security factors used to create it.
