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Morning JAVA: Bitcoin Halving Set To Occur Late Friday

Morning JAVA: Bitcoin Halving Set To Occur Late Friday


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Like most Bitcoin enthusiasts, I've been keeping tabs on when the next Bitcoin halving will occur. The history of Bitcoin suggests big moves as was seen in the previous halving. Remember in late 2019 when Bitcoin shot up to almost $20,000, then continued onward over the next couple of years to hit $67K before the FTX scandal sent all cryptos crashing.

Below, we can see just how volatile Bitcoin has been just in the last month and a half or so.

Kitco Bitcoin Chart - April 18, 2024

On March 13, Bitcoin peaked at $74K and has since been range bound between $62K and $72K. In the last week or so, Bitcoin has consolidated to where it sits at time of writing at $62.172K. There's a lot of chatter as to what comes next after the halving, which I've calculated to occur Friday night around 11pm through to when the clock strikes midnight. At the very least, we'll all wake up Saturday morning and Bitcoin will have become even rarer than it already is.

Mind you, the timing isn't exact. I recall reading in January that estimates were the halving would take place on or about April 7 through the 14th. That estimate was off a bit but not by much at the time, so it was very accurate. You might ask though, 'why can't we get an exact date'? 

When new blocks are created, miners earn 6.25 Bitcoin. After the halving, the payout will fall to 3.125 Bitcoin. The thing with block creation is that each block takes a different amount of time to validate. Looking at Crypto.com's halving countdown page, we can see that one block took about 33 minutes to validate, while the next took just 7 minutes and the next after that, 6 minutes while the next only took one minute to validate.

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So I settled on using the law of averages. My guess is that, on average a new block is created every ten minutes. At time of writing, there are only 223 blocks left to validate before the next halving finally occurs. At ten minutes a pop, that adds up to 2, 230 minutes. Divide that number by 60 minutes and we have 37.16 hours to go.

This will be only the fourth time a halving event occurs, after 210,000 blocks have been validated. This deflationary measure ensures the Bitcoin supply is capped at 21 million. This is very bullish for investors as the reduced rate of new supply against rising demand historically has driven the price upward.

So we are now 'hours' away from this historic event. Add last week's solar eclipse along with $2,400 record high gold and April, 2024 is set to go into the history books. We'll be talking about it until the next halving event occurs about 4 years from now.

As I set to publish, there are now only 220 blocks to go. Where do you think the price of Bitcoin is going from here? I think we're headed for 6 figures but when exactly is simply a wild guess. I just know it's going to happen, eventually. 

Please share your thoughts in the comments section below, thanks.

 

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SweptOverNiagara
SweptOverNiagara

Name's Joe and I live in Ontario, Canada. I like writing on a wide variety of topics. I enjoy keeping track of markets, investing and commodities and the crypto sector. Also do some coding for web browsers.


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