Canada USD on the verge of parity?

Canadian Dollar: Rise Or Fall?


The 'Freedom Convoy' is over in Canada. It appears it has achieved its objective to end all mandates. Canada was effectively under a dictatorship for a few unnerving days after PM Trudeau enacted and then lifted the Emergencies Act, scaring the bejeesus out of everyone, especially savers, who made a mad dash for the nearest bank to withdraw money.

Within days of the act being lifted, Russia (not surprisingly) invaded Ukraine. This has triggered an economic and financial war in the form of sanctions on select Russian banks and individuals and banning of sales of Russian vodka in Europe and the Americas, as if banning Russian vodka will make any difference. President Putin is sure to use oil and gas as a tool against the European Union, which heavily depends on Russian natural gas to heat their homes in winter. He'll just find another buyer, say... CHINA, and leave the West out in the cold (pardon the pun). Russia is the world's third largest oil producer with an estimated 11.5 million barrels produced per day.

Russia has all the resources it needs. It has survived a revolution, 2 world wars, the rise of the Soviet Union which led to the deaths of at least 50 million people and finally, the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991, which led to the unneccessary deaths of millions more. Daniel Esultin, an author and former Russian citizen now living in Mexico city, point this out in Greg Hunter's most recent interview at USAWatchDog.com and states that Russians have learned to survive in the worst extremes. If Russia locks itself in from the outside world, there will be a sudden drop in the availability of oil, gas, wheat, palladium and uranium, to name a few., with a massive price shock to follow. I'll also add that Russia has been buying tonnes and tonnes of gold in the last few years so they are well stocked for the long haul. Estulin states it's the USA that is totally unprepared as Americans show more concern for toilet paper and coca-cola when they should be prepping for an extended downturn.

This morning, WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is at $100.83 and Brent Crude is just under $104. Everyone is noticing the price increases at the pumps. The cost of gas seems to go up on a daily basis now and is something we should get used to. In the last year and a half, gasoline has risen about 60% in Canada and hit $1.60 a litre in Toronto last weekend, a record high for the city. That amounts to $7.27 per (imperial) gallon.

Mining legend Pierre Lassonde was recently interviewed by Kitco News  in which he stated that oil is going to $200 a barrel and very soon. Not only that, he also predicted that gold would hit $2,400 as soon as a month from now as he expects the Russia / Ukraine War to drag on. He should know what he's talking about. He's the former chair of Newmont Mining. Newmont recently bought out Gold Corp and now, under the new name Newmont Gold Corp, is the largest gold miner in the world.

Oil is back up over $100. Gold is over $1,900 per ounce. While there have been rumors of a bank run in Canada after Trudeau invoked and then revoked the Emergencies Act, the truth is, we may just see the Canadian dollar rise to par and beyond with the U.S. dollar as was seen in 2010 / 2012 when the Canadian dollar spectacularly rose to a high of $1.10 against the almighty greenback.

I already mentioned that Russia is the world's third largest oil producer. Well, guess which country is in fourth place at 5.6 million barrels per day. Yes, you guessed right but it doesn't end there. Canada has the world's third largest known oil reserves. As solar panels become too costly to manufacture, oil and gas will be there to keep Canada's economic machine oiled and running. Two years ago, silver was just $14 an ounce. Now it costs $10 more. A solar panel uses almost 3/4 ounce of silver per panel. The pure silica used has also skyrocketed by about 25% just in the last quarter. If planning on buying solar panels, I recommend you do it sooner than later.

While Russia is the second largest gold producer (after China), Canada comes in fifth with 170.6 tons (as of year 2020). Like Russia, Canada has all it needs to get buy, literally. Canada's infrastructure is strong and healthy and while it does have nuclear power plants, much of its electricity is powered by hydro-electricity generating stations. Niagara comes to mind. The Sir Adam Beck generating stations produce about 2.2 million kilowatts of power from the flow of water and is enough to power about 1.8 million homes without producing any negative emissions whatsoever.

As of writing, the Canadian dollar is at 79 cents against the U.S. dollar. Rising commodity prices are sure to elevate the Canadian dollar higher. When gold reached its previous high of about $1970 in May, 2011 the Canadian dollar was above the USD. If Pierre Lassonde is correct and gold goes to $2,400 in a month's time and at the same time, oil rises higher, then we should also expect parity with the Canadian and U.S. dollars very soon.

This month is a big month for central banks. Will the FED raise rates in the USA or not in 2 weeks time at their next FOMC meeting? Will Canada's central bank follow suit? Who knows what these creeps are up to. I do think they'll try to raise by a fraction of a percent to test the markets. Where it goes from there is anyone's guess.

Oil and gold (and wheat and copper and uranium and potato chip) prices are steadily rising. I do expect these rising commodity prices to prop up the Canadian dollar. After all, like the USD, the Canadian dollar is also a 'petro-dollar'. If oil goes up, so does Canada's petro-dollar.

Canada's provinces are lifting all mandates. My birth province, New Brunswick just announced yesterday that all mandates, including masks are to be lifted on March 15. In Ontario, all mandates, except the stupid mask mandate was removed at midnight, March 1. After 2 years of lockdowns, I expect Canadians to go on vacation and do road trips across Canada, even if gas hits $2 a litre, for the simple fact that people want / need to 'get out' and explore.

This will be a boom for gas sales and much needed tax revenue. Yet another reason to believe the Canadian dollar is going higher by this summer which should then offset rising costs of imported foods which in turn, will help (mostly American) exporters to Canada turn a profit. 

Nothing is written in stone and good fortune can turn on a dime. It's best to always be prepared. Hold a bit of cash, gold, silver and / or cryptos and have a stash of foods / dry goods to last at least 3 months in case things go south.

As of writing, gold is at $1924 and silver is just below $25 per ounce.

Consider diversifying by adding precious metals to your portfolio!

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SweptOverNiagara
SweptOverNiagara

Name's Joe and I live in Ontario, Canada. I like writing on a wide variety of topics. I enjoy keeping track of markets, investing and commodities and the crypto sector. Also do some coding for web browsers.


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