This was a post I had written and posted last Tuesday on SN and it provides some key insights into what is going on right now with the US Government.
I have to admit yesterdays White House meeting was much less eventful than I figured it would be. If you had asked me how it would go I would have told you it was set up to be a circus and instead that is not what we got. Even if the meeting was uneventful yesterday was full of action and there was one big take away in my opinion.
The Democrats do not have a clear or clean plan and surprisingly the Republicans are keeping their message simple and clear. A leak from the Senate side showed that Schumer does not have a clear way out of this. It came out he had approached a group of Senate Dems about voting for a 7 or 10 day CR with the caveat that Trump agree to Obamacare subsidiary negotiations. Not only did this leak before they announced it to the public but it leaked before the meeting with Republican Leaders and the President and was received so poorly that Schumer completely abandoned the idea.
During the meeting with Republicans Leaders and the President both Schumer and Jeffries unveiled a huge list of things that they demand to keep the government open. Most of this list from what I have seen is stuff that has been talking points like making the Obamacare tax credits permeant while also reigning in the Executive Branches rescission abilities among others. If they had one or two then maybe the meeting would have been able to go somewhere but because it was a list of grievances well they essentially ended the idea of negotiating.
When you add in the reports that came out from the House Democrat Caucus meeting earlier in the day and the yelling that was heard from the most Progressive Members saying "hell no" to options its clear that the House Democrats are not coming to any sort of plan either. If their goal is to get something extra besides a clean CR passed then they are going to have to join en mass to the vote to offset the guaranteed Republican vote loss.
On the other side Republicans were able to leave the White House meeting agreeing that things like healthcare in America was broken and through legislation needs to be passed to fix critical issues including the Obamacare tax credits. It was not realistic though to do it now and rushing legislation never leads to good results. The tax credits also dont expire till the first of 2026 so there is plenty of time.
Republicans are surprisingly in a good spot and their arguments are easy and clear for voters to understand. This funding wont change anything it will allow funding to continue to flow as previously agreed to by both sides and the Democrats are willing to shut it down. When you factor in the furlough people who might not get back pay and could end up being fired if the Office of Management and Budget get there way it only makes the idea of closing the government even worse and the repercussions for people you claim to care about further fall to the wayside.
If this shutdown goes into effect this will be the first time the Government has FULLY shut down since 2013 (it lasted 16 days) in 2018 the longest shutdown took place but multiple parts of the government were funded (legislative branch, Pentagon, Department of Commerce) while the National Park Service, Federal Bureau of Prisons, NASA, and the White House were not paid or in the case of NASA only 4% of the workforce continued working and 25% of the White House. I have been waiting to see what the Senate would do and well it is all but over for tonight now. As of this writing two Dems had voted yes with Sen. Fetterman, who had voted yes last week, and Sen. Cortez Mastro voting with the Republicans. Due to the nature of how the Senate works it is likely Senate Majority Leader Thune will vote against it at the last minute. This is because by doing so he is able to bring the bill up for another vote again.
I have heard a couple of different plans for the Senate. One is that they will vote again tomorrow, skip Thursday in observation of Yom Kippur and then vote again Friday and even Saturday. The other is that they will vote every two days. This second one doesnt track well just because Thursday is Yom Kippur and if you Start the every two days on Friday then you hit Sunday as well. Needless to say whatever the path is chosen the Senate is just going to vote on the same stuff over and over again. This is pretty common and as services close down and people realize how this is affecting their lives it will be clear that the Senate Dems are the ones preventing the government from being funded.
On the House side.... not much to report at all. The majority of Republican's are still in their districts while Democrats came back because there were votes scheduled initially for the House this week but the House closed up shop to force the Senate Dems into a corner. If the Senate passes by some act of God a bill to fund the government the House takes either 48 or 72 hours for Members to return to DC. I am currently drawing a blank on what it is at the moment. The time is because of Alaska and I want to say its Idaho.... those Members have limited flight options and those Members also do not fly private they fly like normal people on Commercial.
There was a pretty funny thing that happened and that was Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) came to DC with the Democrats expecting to be sworn in. However, since the House is out of session that was not going to happen and now Democrats are upset she will have to wait until next week. It was well known and done with plenty of time to know that she would not be sworn in this week but nonetheless it is something that Democrats are calling foul on while Nancy Pelosi did the same thing so its not a surprising thing and both sides do the same thing.
House Dems are meeting tomorrow at 10:00 am something I can only imagine is to try and figure out the new strategy for moving forward. Due to the bill passing the House already there isnt really anything they can do. Sure an attempt can be made to keep holding press conferences but that is a well you can only go to so many times before they lose all effectiveness.
UPDATE: Right before I hit publish for this I saw a third Dem had swung to a Yay with Angus King an Independent that caucuses with the Democrats voting in favor. I have to admit already swinging three Dems is pretty impressive. Maybe the Senate will pass this by the end of the week.... It would be a hell of a collapse by the Senate Dems if they dont at least push this out until the start of next week. It would be a prime example of being all bark and no bite if they break to soon. Time is against them though and it not going to get any better.
UPDATE TWO: Senate vote for the CR officially failed. Government shutdown at midnight.
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