Well, well, well, here we are again in the next iteration of: Does government funding get passed before the end of the fiscal year, or do we have a shutdown (Predyx Market)?
Before August recess, the Senate took up, amended, and passed a version of the CR that the House had previously sent over to them. Included in the Senate amendments were two points that different factions of the Republican Conference were going to have issues with (discussed below). Republican Leadership's move to counter these issues is to put the bill on the floor under suspension of the rules Tuesday.
For a bill to be adopted under suspension, it is not just having the majority of the votes to pass. The threshold established on suspension is 2/3, which in a full Congress would be 290; right now, with a few seats being open, it is a little lower. Republicans have 217 Members, 218 when you include the Independent who caucuses with the Republicans, while the Democrats have 214. Voting via suspension allows Republican leadership to lose Republican votes as long as they are able to make up for it with Democratic votes.
This bill has gained Trump's blessing as well as its bipartisan passage in the Senate, giving Democrats plenty of room to move forward and vote for this legislation. The Block on the Grant Review Rule, which would have placed political appointees in charge of any and all grants the Federal Government issues instead of policy area experts, and a delay on the prohibition on Hemp that was due to go into effect are clear policy wins for the Democrats.
So far I have not come across anything that talks about what the Democratic Leadership is thinking. Whether they are in support of the CR, oppose the CR, or will not whip for or against it. Given the legislative concessions that the Senate Minority was able to extract, I do not see how they would oppose it, given how it would hand Republicans ammunition right before the election, but.... I have been wrong before!
Here's a link again to the government shutdown market!
https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutdown-before-november-3-2026-1783710250?ref=PREDYXVN00WK1R&shareOg=49a87a60-bafc-4f75-b093-cc95d951fb87&shareKind=market
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