The ounce of gold started 2024 at around $2040. After exceeding $2040, which corresponds to the Fibonacci 78.6 of the $1810 decline, it went up to 2781-2790 with the phase I call the spoiled phase. This year, after a long break, because for years the ounce was going up relatively, it did not satisfy its investors who were waiting very much. But this year, we went up to $2790 with a very strong pace, including the expected story geopolitical risks. As you know, 3.618 is not a Fibonacci level, it is just a multiple of 2.618. Therefore, it went up to 3.618 and from there we see that we are experiencing a correction process towards the moving averages again. When we look at the whole year, it made a balance above the one-week moving average with the establishment of the 21-week moving average in March. From there, it clearly trended above it and above the 21-week moving average, I think it made another dip in November and this week, in the last week of the year, it maintains its discipline of working above the 21-week moving average. Our 21-week moving average is passing through $2594.
Therefore, the fact that it is closing the year above 2594 supports the trend, the upward movement continues. However, this week, after a long break, this trend, which started from $1780-1900 for the first time, is giving a weekly close below the weekly trend line for the first time. Therefore, we are now in the 2594-2632 band. This band continues to be weak. As you may recall, I have been talking about falling peaks for about 1.5 months. We had falling peaks around 2794-2721-2630. Therefore, in my opinion, why is the ounce of gold being suppressed in the 2594-2632 band? The date of Trump's presidential jersey is approaching. He is expected to take very serious steps in the Russia-Ukraine War. There is another issue, he continues to suppress this side. On the one hand, a geopolitical risk will be eliminated to end the war there, and on the other hand, the fact that DXY is reaching 108s is suppressing this side.
If 2594 is broken, the graph may effectively remain downward, calling the risks of 2530 - 2513 to the table. However, here, instead of being too downward, I think the question of whether there will be a reaction from here is both the working discipline of the 21-week moving average it made in March and the working discipline of the lowest it made in November. As if the ounce may linger a little longer between 2594 and 2632, but an impression has begun to form as if it will seek a reaction towards 2632s. The important thing is this; I think the question of how and when to manage a safe upward playing field, a safe upward trading discipline in the ounce of gold in transaction discipline is important. We will manage it with 2632. The weekly chart may react by targeting 2632 dollars. As long as it remains above 2594, the risk of re-pressure should be kept aside unless 2632 is exceeded. The weekly chart continues upwards above 2632, 2632 x 2 days equals 2721 / 2781. We can read it as 2632 / 2594 or 2530 risk will remain on the table unless the condition occurs on the second day above 2632.
Therefore, if I pass this chart above 2632 and see a close on the second day, I will start the long disciplined reading discipline towards 2680 / 2721. Unless 2632 is exceeded, the 2594 - 2632 band can be read as a controlled, calm flat, no position, wait-and-see zone. Let's also do a risk analysis. Below 2594, it may fall again towards 2513 - 2490. The discipline we will follow here is this; if we are following an upward transaction, we should follow 2594 as a stop or stop loss. If 2632 is exceeded, I would say that the ounce of gold has turned upward. Therefore, 2594 is important in this chart, if 2594 is broken, the downward pressure towards 2513 and 2490 with Trump's work in the north, perhaps the upward movement that may occur with the dxy exceeding 108 may suppress this place even more. In the ounce of gold, I would read the declines towards 2513 and 2490 as an opportunity unless 2632 is exceeded.
They squeezed the ounce of silver a lot in 2023, they squeezed it between 26.30 and 20.20, they invested it, a narrowing triangle was formed. Then they broke it and took it to Fibonacci 1.618. My personal opinion is that the 28.80 - 26.42 area is our major support that we will follow in the first months of 2025. Therefore, in the first weeks or first days of 2025, I read 28.80 as intermediate support, 26.42 as a very strong support in the weekly silver ounce chart. In my opinion, 26.42 in ounce silver is technically reasonable, and below 26.42 is crowned with the concept of cheap for ounce silver. Therefore, 28.80 is intermediate support, 26.42 would be right to follow as a much stronger support than 28.80. My personal opinion is that in the 28.80 - 26.42 area, we can say that this area is gradually technically reasonable, technically eroded for silver, keeping 26.42s as a risk on the sidelines in the base scenario for the next exit.
In this sense, the movement above 28.80 - 26.40 will draw the 30.30 - 31.60 short term 35.49, which is the region close to the 2024 peak, to the medium term re-targeting radar. Let me just remind silver investors or silver traders that 28.80 is important here. 26.42 is a technically eroded region. Below 26.42, 25.12 would be a relatively cheap region in technical terms. Let's look at the event from a different perspective. It has support at 28.80 or 26.40. In other words, we say that a possible upward movement will start from one of these two figures, this is in the pocket. If you say that you are playing for the trend and not the decline, you cannot get involved in this chart unless it exceeds 30.30. If you are chasing the trend, you will come to the chart above 30.30. If you say the trend does not concern me, silver is getting cheaper and I am chasing the opportunity, then watch 28.80 - 26.42.
When looking at the weekly chart of Bitcoin, I stated that the Fibonacci 1.618 of the 69000 - 15000 decline is at 102000, and there is also the 106000 of the impulse. I explained that it would be relatively very risky to make new costs while the price is going up towards 102000 and 106000. Now there is such a sweet pullback. It is as if they are correcting Bitcoin before Trump puts on his presidential shirt, before the statements he will make after he puts on it. Of course, the DXY going up is also effective, the American 10-year bonds going up is also effective, they are correcting these as an excuse, this is a non-technical summary. As for the technique, we are experiencing the correction caused by 102000 - 106000, Fibonacci 1.618 or impulse resistance. Bitcoin fell below its 8-week moving average for the first time since 62700 last weekend. It started to create pressure below its 8-week moving average for the first time. It was a signal of continued significant weakness.
If a new upward trend is to start, it may be risky to be a new participant unless 102008 - 106444 is passed. If it passes these levels, we will start an upward game discipline. Unless this is passed, the risk of pressure towards 85150 - 83528 is on the table as of now. This place is very volatile, if this place passes 96000 - 97000, it may suddenly return to 102000 - 106000. With the weekly closing coming last Sunday, I decided to take a look at the daily charts. There was a diamond image there. The asymmetrical situation on the right side of the diamond is still a bit disturbing, but since diamonds do not have to be completely symmetrical, in other words, one side of diamonds can be short. As a result, the right side is short right now, this place bothers me a bit. Therefore, it is useful to remember that there is a diamond risk. The diamond formation will be canceled above 96000 - 97000. Unless this condition occurs, 83000 - 85000 seems like a correction target for Bitcoin, we will follow it.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
