My Thoughts on Current Markets-125

By Biologist25 | Tech. Analysis | 18 May 2024


When we look at Bitcoin, we had a strong uptrend before. It went into a fix. There was a market that was in a sell position for a long time and could not force it to pass, and last week, if we go down to a 4-hour period, there was a reverse head-and-shoulder formation formation between 6-15 May. The falling bottom has reached the rising bottom. From here, it became a scenario such as whether it would continue upwards or break and go down. There is now significant horizontal resistance at 67300 for these levels to persist. This resistance must be broken. Of course, we should not forget that when we switch to 1 day of such an image while it is 4 hours old, of course there is a possibility that it is fake. So, we cannot say that it returned to the market just because it jumped on it immediately. However, the market is now in a buy position. So, this place has been in a sell position for days on April 13th. After Israel attacked Gaza, this place went into a sell position. Bitcoin moved into a sell position at 68000 levels. Then, for the first time since that day, that is, a full month, almost a month later, we have moved into a buy position again.

Now here, of course, will the trend continue? The decline is over, just like in the past, that is, we have seen a downward movement with the approval of ETF in the recent past. After the ETF approval, we saw a retreat from 48000 to 38000 levels. Then, after this withdrawal, the same scenario occurs with a sell position on January 15. Then, a buy position is formed on January 29. After the buy position is formed, it tests the monthly average again. It holds above it and then starts a strong uptrend. Since we are now in a bull market, a similar situation may occur again. In other words, it confirms the trend a little by zigzagging above the monthly average. Then, it may make a new strong upward wave. So, is it strong enough to do this or will it break the supports from here and continue downwards again? The supporting factor here will be the American markets. Because it has a movement that is more or less parallel to the American market. It's not exactly the same, but it's somewhat parallel.

When we open the Nasdaq market, we see that while the Nasdaq is hovering around 72000 - 73000 levels, exactly where Bitcoin is struggling, there is a resistance that the American markets have reached the peak area in the same way and cannot overcome. Again, we see that the point where the American market collapsed was April 12. So, on April 12, Nasdaq moves to a sell position, and on April 13, Bitcoin moves to a sell position. Then they do a similar bottom run and the Nasdaq actually breaks up on May 8th. We see this on the bitcoin side on May 13. There is a 5-day gap in between and when we look at the Nasdaq chart, it has just reached a peak. So our conclusion from here is this. Bitcoin must have started an upward movement that will break the 73000 - 74000 band. But like I said, there may be a little bit of a back and forth here. Maybe it will zigzag a little between 63000 - 66000. Then I guess it will continue upwards.

Likewise, when we look at the S&P stock market, we see a similar graphic structure in the S&P stock market. When we look at the bitcoin chart again, we see that the correction here and then our expectation is more in line with the upward scenario, not the downward scenario, that is, the increase has a higher potential due to the reasons. Therefore, even though there will be a bit of a zigzag process in bitcoin in the coming period, that is, even if there is a slight correction in the jump from 61000 to 66000, I honestly expect the rise to continue. Now next month, as far as I know, there will be a televised debate between Trump and Biden. Then there will be an election in November.

As the election approaches, there is usually a rally in American markets. Because the stock market is a place where 90% of savings are evaluated. That's why you need to raise the stock market to get the votes of the masses there. Maybe if there is an interest rate cut as we approach the elections, this could be a bigger catalyst for the stock market. We can create the same scenario regarding bitcoin here. So, I can say that I expect the upward trend in bitcoin to strengthen. When we look at Bitcoin, according to the analysis data we received from Nasdaq and S&P, there is a situation where we can go above 73000 in Bitcoin and return to new peaks.

When we look at altcoins here, there is already a 50% - 70% relaxation in altcoins. If Bitcoin falls further, altcoins will have nowhere to go anyway. Therefore, I see the possibility of Bitcoin rising more from here. I just mentioned that the FED's interest rate cut should come gradually. Because in order for the stock markets to rise even further, they need to create a rally atmosphere before the American elections. I think the interest rate reduction will also be important here.

When we look at the gold chart, I stated that the 2080 - 2090 resistance is very important and if this place is broken, there will be a sharp rise. Here too, my expectation is 2500 - 2600 is the first target point. While there was a strong rise towards here, a correction movement came from $ 2400. For now, I think there is a correction here. Finally, there was another attack from 2200 to 2400. However, I think this will not be permanent and will turn into a pennant structure here. Then, I think the next attack will move towards $2600. In other words, the wind is blowing from behind in gold again. I expect the upward movement to continue. In fact, I think gold will continue to move strongly until mid-2025.

Similarly, in silver, I actually thought that the 25.50 - 26 region was a very critical resistance, and that there could be a strong jump up to $ 30 with the breaking of the triangle structure that has been formed since the 2020s. It was stuck at exactly 30 dollars. There was a sharp correction here again, as in gold. It relaxed again until around 26.30. However, I was thinking that it could make a jump again later by making the previous old resistance level support. Again, it came up to 30 dollars. Silver will become a little more aggressive than gold in the coming period and $35 is its next target. In fact, if you look at it on a weekly basis, you know that there is a level that we can call 50 dollars as the main target at 45 and 50 major. Gold has already surpassed these levels, so silver is actually far behind. The main target for silver is $50, and I think this is the level that can be seen by mid-2025.

So, in general, it is a process where you can actually earn whatever you invest money in. Of course, the leveraged market or spot market may be preferred here. However, in clear cases, those who have done Viop or Forex before can of course prefer leveraged markets. But if you are trading on spot, the place where you will actually make the most money on spot seems to be crypto. Because even in the current situation in altcoins, even a month ago, while there were coins with 10x, 20x, 30x potential, we saw that they were withdrawn by around 50%. The bow is well strung, it has a long range to shoot. Bitcoin may be the main target from here: $150000 - $200000. So x may be 2, but there is serious potential in altcoins. Here, Ethereum fell below 3000 dollars, but as it fell, it rose above 3000 dollars again. So these places were a support. There may be a strong Ethereum rally one day tomorrow if the ETF is approved. Or there will be many opportunities in other altcoins.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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Tech. Analysis
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