Weekly reports on the state of the macroeconomy, stocks, and crypto compiled by the 1.2 Labs Research team.
18 Mar 2023 3 minute read 0 comments Todd Mei PhD
Welcome to the free State of the Market report for the Art of the Bubble! Our subscriber plans make use of the same base algorithm that our crypto hedge fund, 1.2 Capital, does. It’s modified in timeframe and weighting so you don’t have to stare a...
11 Mar 2023 3 minute read 0 comments Todd Mei PhD
The Macro Situation Toss and then mix. The state of the market remains confused. The ups and downs: After an initial drop, the economy got complicated when later in the week an increase in jobless claims seemed to bolster the Fed’s plan for steady hi...
4 Mar 2023 2 minute read 0 comments Todd Mei PhD
The Macro Situation Markets sit in expectation of what is in store for the Fed’s next rate hike. Slow and steady remains the pace, with a strong indication of a 25 bps hike this month and a terminal rate between 5.5%-6%. At the start of Thursday, the...
25 Feb 2023 2 minute read 0 comments Todd Mei PhD
The Macro Situation The economy remains strong, inflation sticky, and the markets in a slump. This week’s PPI, PCE, and jobs numbers were higher than expected. The PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, is the Fed's preferred fa...
18 Feb 2023 2 minute read 0 comments Todd Mei PhD
The Macro Situation Rate hikes beyond a 5% terminal rate are now the consensus norm because last month’s CPI is up, retail activity is up, and the Producer Price Index is up. The good news is that although last month’s CPI was up, year-over-year the...
11 Feb 2023 2 minute read 3 comments Todd Mei PhD
The Macro Situation The market closed lower this week, but optimism remains. Retail trading reached a high (since 2021), accounting for 23% of the market’s total volume in January. Goldman Sachs has downgraded the likelihood of a recession from 35% t...
4 Feb 2023 2 minute read 1 comment Todd Mei PhD
The Macro Situation The buzzword since Wednesday’s Fed meeting is “disinflation”, which technically means that prices are rising at a slower pace. With February’s 25bps increase, J Powell believes that a reduction in inflation will occur “without a r...
28 Jan 2023 2 minute read 0 comments Todd Mei PhD
The Macro Situation High interest rates appear to be having the desired effect as demand was strong in Q4 of 2022 but then started to wane. Despite this downward momentum, GDP figures for Q4 came in higher than expected at 2.9% due to a build up in i...
21 Jan 2023 2 minute read 0 comments Todd Mei PhD
It’s been a rocky road this past week with markets reacting to both positive and negative indicators—from an encouraging lower producer price index to disappointing jobless claims numbers. The overall consensus is that the Fed is easing its pressure...
14 Jan 2023 1 minute read 0 comments Todd Mei PhD
December’s CPI report announced a 0.1% decrease compared to November. This means a 25 point increase is likely for next month’s Fed meeting. Within the grand scheme of things, there’s a guarded optimism arising. First, there’s a likelihood of smaller...
