Welcome to the free version of the Art of the Bubble!
Our paid plans make use of the same base algorithm that our crypto hedge fund, 1.2 Capital Management, does.
We have two primary data offerings for stocks: (1) a risk parity “Bubble Portfolio” and (2) a “Leveraged Index Portfolio”. They are pictured below relative to their benchmark: the QQQ, which is an ETF of the Nasdaq100 (Results Updated Quarterly).
Unleashing the $200/Day Airdrop Bot on Friend.Tech: A 5-Step Guide
That’s an estimated return, but we’ve concluded our testing on Friend.Tech and our results indicate that we made about $2 a trade. The problem is that we lacked volume. During peak times, the bot would make about 100 trades a day, giving you that $200/day figure.
In this newsletter, we’re going to review how to do it. And as a reminder, I’m mostly interested in Friend.Tech because I think it illustrates the principles of Airdrop farming successfully. Here are the 5 steps.
Step 1 - Identify a successful project
That project needs to have enough capital behind it to make those airdrops valuable. Relatedly, the project needs to be willing to drop enough coins to make it possible to pick up many points.
I should also mention that you need to ensure that early founders won’t be able to dump their coins on you just as the airdrop period ends. If the project hasn’t found a good reason to ensure that people hold onto their coins, you should be ready to sell very quickly after the airdrop accumulation period ends.
Step 2 - Have a dumb, clear strategy
Friend.Tech makes money from flipping keys. Every time a key is sold it costs 10% commission, with 5% going to the platform. They want to incentivize coin flipping and reward that with points.
The dumb strategy–one that’s so dumb it could easily be understood while high–is to buy keys, wait for them to appreciate more than 10% and sell them.
You will net the airdrop points, even if you don’t make much on the keys.
This strategy requires that you identify keys that are likely to go up in value. How do you do that? The answer has two parts–which are the next two steps.
Step 3 - Ensure that money is flowing into that project
You need money going into the platform generally–it’s the rising tide that brings up all ships. If money isn’t going in, then influencers aren’t getting their people to onboard.
There are typically a few ways to measure positive platform flow. With Friend.Tech it’s simple to check the total value locked by going to DeFi Llama. Unfortunately, DeFi Llama won’t let you add algorithmic analysis–you’ll need to code that.
Our team does this and Alpha Riders receive a weekly report that will signal when Friend.Tech is experiencing a meaningful uptrend. Here’s what the most recent one looked like–honestly, not a great period for this, but we ran the experiment anyway.
Step 4 - Find The Right Influencers
You want keys from Twitter (X) influencers who are likely to mention that they’re on FT to their followers. They need enough followers to pump the price up – so likely 10k or more. As soon as some of them join, they’ll bid up the price and you can get your flip.
We provide Alpha Riders with a list of 50 accounts that are worth following. That way, when TVL turns positive you’ll have a sense of which keys to buy. We check them for recent activity on Twitter and FT also. The limitation here is that you’re not going to be able to do this 100 times a day–or it’ll be hard.
Step 5 - Add Volume
If you really want airdrop points, you are going to make your life significantly easier if you automate the process with bots.
For Friend.Tech and other “targeted” activities, UniBot is likely your best choice. Click the link to save 25% per trade. Remember, this is a game of fees, so every little bit counts.
Next, install the bot on your Telegram account. If you need help with that, this is the official video by the team. I always go to the official videos to avoid crypto pumpers.
Once you install UniBot on your Telegram app, you’ll get a screen that looks like this. If not, just type /menu.
Next, you are going to run into a problem if you have an FT account that’s using Base rather than ETH. The reason is that you need to fund your account with ETH as the bot only runs on ETH. See my version below.
Be sure to put some ETH in the ETH side so that your bot has money.
Next, hit Click “Auto Snipe” and you’ll get a configuration screen like the following. We experimented a bit with these settings.
Recall too that 100% = no increase in price. Also, we learned from experience that Friend.Tech calculates the value of keys based on the next sale price, so you may need to choose a higher target. Tweaks to this strategy are reserved for Alpha Riders, but you get the general idea.
I also think that you want keys that are 0.1 ETH or less, rather than 0.2. Your aim, after all, is to snipe keys as soon as people enter. If your bot tried to buy after that point, I think you’d be too late.
Even with a declining TVL on Friend.Tech (since people were taking money to buy BTC), my bot made roughly $2 per trade – mostly while I slept. I turned it off because the TVL trend wasn’t positive, but as soon as Web3 narratives start circulating, my bot is ready to run.
-Sebastian Purcell, PhD
The Macro Situation
GDP (noun):
- A conventional measure of financial health of a nation;
- “Grow is for plants,” not humans. (Henry Chinaski)
― New Entry in the Updated Devil’s Dictionary
If you’re the kind of investor who is looking for any excuse to think a recession isn’t likely, look no further. Third quarter GDP came in hot, with annualized growth (4.9%) registering its fastest rate in nearly two years.
To state the implication clearly: the likelihood that the US is in a recession now, or that it will enter one before the end of 2024 is low.
Inflation does persist, however.
The PCE index increased 0.3%, as predicted by economists, and was up compared to 0.1% in August. The PCE is favored by the Fed over the CPI since it takes into account product consumer substitution (i.e. chicken for more expensive beef), what consumers pay, and what businesses charge.
The big picture hasn’t changed: “higher for longer.” Yet, the worry about over-valuation in the markets looks to be following the AI-tech slide. The Nasdaq has lost one-third of its gains (or 11%) since its high in July. This overall trend may accelerate the decline in consumer confidence and subsequently help with inflation numbers.
The lack of progression on the inflation front has benefitted gold, which was boosted at the week’s end (2015.30). Long-term treasuries have steadied, with the 10-2 year spread at -0.16 while crude oil remains mixed (85.03).
- Todd Mei, PhD and Sebastian Purcell, PhD
AI Sentiment Report
The following sentiment scores use ChatGPT as part of the AI tech stack to track sectors as leading indicators. (Lesson 4 of The Art of The Bubble covers the selection of lead indicators for bubble trades). The scores are most indicative for the next day of trading (a Monday), but they appear to set the general tone for the next week.
The methodology employed is based on this peer reviewed academic article, which produced 550%+ results in back tests over a 2 year time frame. We consider 4 and 5 scores to be positive, but please bear in mind that the AI model is still in its validation phase.
-The Research Team:
Dom Viera, Samantha Russell, Nicole Zinuhova, Aiza Malik
Happy Trading!!
Think About Subscribing
Our subscriber plans make use of the same base algorithm that our hedge fund, 1.2 Capital Management does, but modified in timeframe so you don’t have to stare at your screen all day.
We have two primary data offerings in cryptocurrencies: (1) AOTB Dynamic and (2) the Crypto Maxi. (Quarterly Update)
This newsletter is provided for educational and entertainment purposes only and should not be relied upon for business, investment, taxation, or legal advice. You should consult your own advisors for those matters. References to any securities or digital assets are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Furthermore, this content is not directed at nor intended for use by any investors or prospective investors, and may not under any circumstances be relied upon when making a decision to invest in any fund managed by 1.2 Capital Management. (An offering to invest in a 1.2 Capital Management fund will be made only by the private placement memorandum, subscription agreement, and other relevant documentation--all of which should be read in their entirety.) Any investments or portfolio companies mentioned, referred to, or described are not representative of all investments in vehicles managed by 1.2 Capital Management, and there can be no assurance that the investments will be profitable or that other investments made in the future will have similar characteristics or results.
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