Hey guys, just wanted to say thanks for all the support i have gotten here recently, it has been AWESOME. Below are all the notes i made for my videos - feel fee to read through or just skip them and check out the videos. I posted on Youtube and for those of you looking to earn some LBRY i posted there as well. Again, thank you so much for all the support and enjoy the race this weekend !
And on LBRY :
We had a great in weekend in the NASCAR cup series giving you guys 3 of the top 5 in Saturday's race and then back dooring it with
the top 3 in Sunday's race as well. Both races played out a lot like we thought they would with Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick dominating
the field on both days.
On Saturday we gave out a few winners with Kevin Harvick barely holding off Denny Hamlin to get his first ever winner at Pocono.
Kyle Busch rounded out the top 5 with Truex Jr coming in right behind him in 6th.
Hamlin had the best car this weekend and it showed as he came back to win Sunday's race with Harvick coming in second in this one. Kyle Busch
Got wrecked halfway through the race and truex finished 10th on sunday.
Our long shot Erik Jones had a rough day Sunday when he got run over by Tyler Reddick but came back strong to finish third in Sundays race.
What i feel even better about though is that the guys we faded did exactly what we thought they would do with Johnson finishing 16th and 21st
and Logano having a miserable weekend finishing 24th and 36th. That worked out great for us in our head to head matchups.
Keep an eye on the guys we fade y'all because THAT is gonna be where we make our money this season
So next up we head to Indianapolis motor speedway which was originally geared towards Indy cars but NASCAR Started racing at in 1994 with
pretty boy Jeff Gordon winning the inaugural race here. It's a 2.5 mile rectangular oval with very little banking which makes it pretty tricky.
I've singled out about 5-6 guys to watch here including a couple long shots and once again we will have a few guys we will be looking
to fade as well.
First up we have the usual suspects which gives me a lot of confidence that we will have some winners but we will likely be looking at
not so great odds. With that said or favorite here is likely gonna be Kevin Harvick.
Harvick has just completely dominated this entire season and i am not looking to buck that trend. He has 6 top 10 finishes straight at Indy
and half of those were top 5 including a win here in 2019. Since coming to Stewart Haas in 2014 he has been super consistent here so i'm
looking for him to continue that success this weekend. He's been installed as the early favorite at 5/1 to win and i do see some value in
making that bet. I think that is worth a one unit play and i will also be looking at his odds for top 3 and top 5 and would be willing to
bet him in almost every head to head other than the Denny Hamlin matchup.
With that being said, next up lets take a look at the number 11 JGR Toyota Camry. Denny has actually never won a race here at Indy but that
could all change this weekend. Denny comes in with a ton of momentum having won 4 races this season and 9 top 10 finishes. At Indy over the
last 8 races he has finished in the top 10 six times and four of those have been top 5 finishes. He has finished in third 3 times here
including in 2018 when he lead 37 laps but just could not seal the deal. Right now his odds are right behind Harvick's at 6/1 and i see
value in playing him both to win and top 5 finish.
Next up we have Joey Logano who is looking to rebound from an absolutely dreadful weekend at Pocono where he finished 24th and 36th.
Despite not having ever won a race here, Joey has finished in the top 10 and top 5 quite a bit. In 11 career races here Joey has an
average finish of 11th place with seven top 10 finishes with four of those being top 5's including finishing 2nd place here last
year behind Kevin Harvick. His odds to win are at 7/1 and i will consider laying half a unit to a unit on him here.
A couple other drivers i will be looking at here will be Kyle Busch, who still has not won a race this season and sits at 6.5/1 odds; Brad Keselowski
who has been hot this year and finished second and first here in 2017 and 2018 before wrecking out last year and is sitting at 8/1; and my long shot will
be Matt Kenseth who has never won here but has placed top 10 in six out of his last eight races here. Currently there's no odds on Kenseth to win but i
suspect we may see 80/1 or even 100/1 when they do make a line.
Now for this weeks fades which i feel really good about. First off we will be fading Alex Bowman. Despite never having finished better than 21st at Indy
Bowman has been given 14/1 odds to win this weeks race which is completely baffling to me. I know he has been better of late but I don't see enough
improvement to warrant those odds. This gives me a lot of hope that we will see some favorable odds in head to head match ups against Bowman. Specifically I will be looking to bet against him in head to heads with any of the guys i listed earlier - Harvick, Hamlin, Logano, etc.
Next up is Martin Truex Jr. Truex has also been hot this season but consistently under performs here at Indy. With his odds to win sitting at 7/1 i definitely think we see some good odds in head to head matchups as well.
Last up we have Jimmie Johnson who you guys know by now i have been fading all season. My thought is basically that this being Jimmie's last season, he has one foot out the door. I don't think Jimmie is interested much in racing any more and with his recent performances being less than stellar here i can definitely see him finishing in the 15-20 range.
If you guys have any questions or comments about the race please feel free to leave them in the comments below or join us in the Lightning Picks Discord server. Thanks for reading and for your support.