You probably have seen videos or articles or blog posts, where some crypto experts claimed that 1 BTC will reach $1 mln in the coming years. In this post, we try to find a reasonable argument for this claim.
First of all, we need to understand that US has $35 trillions in debt and such huge debt causes many serious financial and economic problems.
Secondly, we need to understand that US had chosen to solve this debt problem by recycling/hiding this debt in cryptos. There are two scenarios for such strategy of debt’s recycling.
Scenario 1.
In this scenario, all 35 trillions will go into BTC. If we assume that BTC price movement is proportional to the amount of the debt recycled then BTC price, after all 35 trillions will go into BTC, will increase in 35/4+1=9.75 times. Assuming that 1 BTC=112,000 we get 9.75*112,000=1,092,000.
Therefore, the claim that 1 BTC may go to $1 mln is based on this scenario.
There are two big risks, which may break this movement of BTC price to $1 mln. The first risk come from quantum computers (see [1-3]) and the second risk come from new super fast algorithms (see [4-5]). If quantum computers or ordinary computers running new super fast algorithms will break encryptions on which BTC is based, before BTC will be secured with post quantum encryptions, then BTC price will drop to zero.
Therefore, in this scenario all long term BTC investors gamble on binary outcome (1 BTC to 1 mln or to 0).
Scenario 2
In this scenario, only a portion of the debt will go into BTC. Let us assume that X% of $35 trln will go into BTC. The table below gives us prices of 1 BTC for different values of X.
References:
1. https://coincub.com/2026-the-year-quantum-could-break-bitcoin/
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqi4AeteMlw
5. https://techxplore.com/news/2025-09-tackles-integer-factorization-problems-digital.html
