There Is Only One Way To Trade AMPL
In my recent article "My Ampleforth Strategy!", I went into detail describing my strategy in regards to Ampleforth. Now, at the time of writing the article AMPL had been spending weeks and months above a dollar and most people were still high on positive rebases. Many people also believed that movements under a dollar would see AMPL being bought up. This combined with the Ampleforth mechanism was expected to push the AMPL price over a dollar and continue to produce positive rebases for all the AMPL holders.
My concern was that this would not actually take place and that the best way to play this market was to combine TA with the AMPL price , taking into account rebase levels. In the screenshot below it becomes evidently clear that price action below a dollar does not necessarily get bought up.
We can see that AMPL has spent weeks under a dollar and is still currently trading well under a dollar. My strategy, as described in my previous AMPL post is to wait for technicals to point to a breakout or reversal pattern above $0.90 and then only enter a position. To reason that AMPL is oversold is merely not enough. If the price action is pointing towards a breakout and the AMPL price is above $0,90, your chances are much stronger that these factors combined will bring the thrust needed to push the price above a dollar again.
Averaging into the position further, once the price action is firmly trading over a dollar is the smart thing to do. In so doing you strengthen your position and can exit if the price begins to buckle.
These three points have to line up!
- Price is above $0.90
- Technicals indicate a bullish reversal or breakout
- The time frame below a dollar needs to be significant
If the time spent below a dollar is merely hours or days, the chances that a breakout above a dollar being a fakeout are quite high. A cycle needs to be seen so that a positive rebase cycle can be expected. As it appears now for AMPL, the price is likely heading towards positive rebase territory. I will be watching to see if these three ingredients are going to come together in the coming days.
Please remember that this is not financial advice, these are my thoughts and strategies. Please do your own research and analysis.