Origin Materials - 10 Days From Q3 Earnings Report

We learned this past week the much anticipated date of the next earnings report for Sacramento-based Origin Materials. After the market close on Thursday, November 3rd 2022 the company will host its quarterly earnings call. Yes, it's hard to believe that's only ten days away. What's even more hard to believe is that all throughout the third quarter, the company issued a total of four other press releases. The news was as follows:

  • Origin Materials Co-CEOs to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences
  • Origin Materials Co-CEO to Speak at Goldman Sachs Global Sustainability Forum
  • Origin Materials Wins 2022 Alternative Fuels & Chemicals Coalition Global Biobased Economy Performance Award
  • Origin Materials Co-Founder and Co-CEO to Speak at Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference NEXT 2022

A very quiet three months, arguably. That's not to say there hasn't been anything going on. In fact, as we will no doubt learn about on the call, construction on the Origin 1 facility in Sarnia, Ontario continues. Thanks to some reconnaissance posted by a curious investor, we can see progress:


There it is, in the Arlanxeo Bio-Industrial Park. All credit for the image goes to Eddie Broccolini's original tweet. It is quite difficult to speculate just how close it is to being completed, but here is a comparison that another savy investor put together:


This collage is courtesy of Cardano Fish of Twitter. From everything that can be seen from this angle, it appears that all the pieces are in placed when you compare to the concept art from a 2021 investor presentation:


Perhaps some further finishing of the process building and of course what does or doesn't lie behind the modules and feedstock silo. It would be easy to continue speculating on just how close to completion the facility is. The Sarnia Journal even alludes to it in their most recent article, Origin Materials wins award as plant construction wraps up. As has been the official word from all prior earnings reports, "mechanical completion expected by the end of 2022, a company spokesman told The Journal." Let's not forget that though module erection was completed ahead of time, the timeline for mechanical completion has remained the same over the past 18 months:


Recent Analyst Price Targets

In the month of October, Credit Suisse has initiated coverage on Origin Materials and Bank of America has provided an updated price target.

Credit Suisse has assigned an "outperform" rating to the stock, meaning they believe that the stock "will produce a better rate of return than similar companies, but the stock may not be the best performer in the index." They have assigned an initial price target of $7, based on 17x 2026e EBITDA and state that the downside risks include "delays in startup or inability to scale technology, competition from much larger incumbents, and potential shortfalls in customer interest in carbon negative products." The first two reasons risks are no surprise, but for a company that boasts a $1 trillion total addressable market and so many companies making net-zero pledges, it seems a bit ridiculous that there would be "shortfalls in customer interest" but I suppose there always an outside chance for something like that.

Bank of America updated its coverage on the stock, after one of its analysts took a tour of the O1 facility construction site. The analyst stated that the tour "increased conviction of commercialization by mid-2023" and stated that the plant is "nearly completed." Clearly impressed with the progress in Sarnia and the company's outlook, an updated price target of $9 has been assigned while maintaining the "buy" rating. 

For what it's worth, these analyst price targets suggest a 36-75% upside in the stock, from the closing price of $5.14 on 10/21/22.

So Wen Earnings?

Q3 earnings will be released after the close of the market on November 3, 2022. A conference call will follow, starting at 5pm EST.

Interested investors and other parties can listen to a webcast of the live conference call by logging onto the Investor Relations section of the Company's website at https://investors.originmaterials.com.

The conference call can be accessed live over the phone by dialing 1-888-999-3182 (domestic) or +1-848-280-6330 (international). A telephonic replay will be available approximately two hours after the call by dialing 1-844-512-2921, or for international callers, +1-412-317-6671. The conference ID for the live call and pin number for the replay is 11152434. The replay will be available until 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on November 17, 2022.

Origin management will incorporate responses to a selection of shareholders’ frequently asked questions during the webcast. Shareholders are invited to submit questions via the investor relations email address: [email protected]. Please include the hashtag #askorigin in the subject line. Questions will be accepted beginning today through October 27, 2022.


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