Following our previous recap of Bitcoin's slight awakening, we find our interpretation confirmed... Bitcoin isn't ready to climb and for the reasons mentioned in our last post(geopolitics, big, big problems with optimism in markets).

Momentum broken

CoinGecko puts Bitcoin at around $81,513 right now. That is down roughly 0.60% over the past 24 hours and about 1.37% over the past seven days. After a 30-day gain of roughly 6.56%, it looks like it may be a reversal because botting is exploding -- accounts are filling up with BTC in preparation for some sort of market hijinks. This, of course, is our bias because of how closely we watch AI developments (Claude, Deepseek, harnesses improving for every kind of reverse engineering under the sun).

There is meaningful participation in markets but not enough, as indicated by Coinmarketcap's sentiment tracker standing still at about 50% (not bullish, not bearish == not good).

The stink of fear is indeed here to linger on. Bonds are on r/wallstreetbets discussions all week. Tesla's flying car led to a 3% drop after the presentation. People are not seeing anything newsworthy or optimism worthy. AI analysis would tell you it's not risk-off but we aren't budging from our largely cynical, bearish outlook for BTC in coming week to weeks.

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Not financial advice, just what works for me.

Overall, we would say Bitcoin had a soft week inside a stronger month than earlier periods. We are looking at the freezing of sanctions as a larger downturn spell on all markets. Keeping an eye on ai developments around botting is important because of the odd re-positioning of larger whales who are cropping up on the radar of ai analyses. Definitely concerning.

Our guess? Probably a big dip of 5%-10% is incoming, courtesy of big banks shuffling Bitcoin with big budget token accounts via Claude. Yeah, it's bad and we're here to tell you crypto, stocks, everything is being swung left and right (in a bad way) by ai advances becoming 'democratized' to an extent, leading to lots of odd and surprising outcomes.

Coinbase referral ($20 in BTC)

I keep a small automatic BTC buy going every week, and Coinbase is where I do it. If you want to start stacking too, my link sets us both up: https://coinbase.com/join/QH4PV2H?src=referral-link. Referral code: QH4PV2H.

Not financial advice, just what works for me.