Anyone else believe in the saying "history repeats itself"?
I'm getting some major flashbacks to 2017 from the current crypto market. And this isn't some technical or fundamental analysis.
This is just that bad knee, that starts to tick before the rain comes in...
On December 17th, 2017 BTC hit its all time high back then of $19,870.
Link and picture of data below.
https://au.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/historical-data
From December 17th, 2017 to February 17th, 2018 it dropped 44% to $11,1073. In 2 months, and then it started to spiral into the abyss.
Granted this time's correction isn't as acute, but continue to read...
This is key, Ethereum was straggling behind, but ultimately the drop in ETH was FAR more pronounced.
Finally, you'll look back and see alt coins were booming to new all time highs, shortly before ETH's crash began, then they just got decimated.
You'll notice those 3 patterns, BTC peaks, once BTC runs out of steam, ETH peaks. BTC begins descent and ETH follows but bleeds way worse. Alt coins take the biggest hit.
Look at any single correction from the last 7 years in the crypto space. BTC peaks, BTC stops, ETH peaks, ETH stops, BTC declines, ETH declines even worse, Alts peak, and alts get crushed.
I'm watching the daily charts for BTC and ETH and even now, most youtube videos are talking about how ETH is falling below the 50 day moving average, whereas bitcoin is barely holding on to its 21 day moving average, but still easily holding 50 day moving average. Now I see alts making a roaring ascent. And I am just bracing myself....
(Not for altcoin holdings, let's be honest, the $500-$1000 you put in ADA or XLM, isn't going to break your back. But BTC / ETH? ya that's going to bankrupt some folks)
As BTC is sputtering its engine, there is one other (insert sarcastic tone here) TINY marco-factor to consider. A market correction.
SIDE NOTE: I don't understand why all the perma-bulls are preaching about good ol' institutional investors coming in to save the day. Buddy, if the market goes into a serious correction, they're going to have to save & secure their actual assets first. You know... like real money? And shares of companies that actually produce goods and services? What makes you think when the ship is sinking they'll flock to BTC as some safe haven? If institutions are going to use BTC as a hedge against inflation.....Why is the bond market so lively? THINK ABOUT IT.
Better yet, take any major market correction - especially the one in March of 2020, which way did Bitcoin go? UP?
If you're hoping big money will save the day, they won't. They'll let it bleed out before they come in at $10-12K to re-buy. (Not that I know it will reach those lows again, just throwing very low numbers around).
So what happens when this crypto bull cycle has run its course? When BTC is no longer able to go parabolic, (and please don't tell me these minor consolidations along the way are any type of real correction) and it's in the midst of a stock market / economic correction as well?
I hope I'm wrong, but until then, I'm going to listen to my gut / knee, and watch the market even more closely. I know enough people who got skewered in 2017 when ripple was $3+, eth was $1200+, or BTC $10,000.
And yes I'm acutely aware of the HODL mentality. That an investment should be gauged in years and decades, not months or years.
But why should average investors miss an opportunity to buy a whole coin at $12,000 vs just over a quarter of (.27) of a coin now? Do we really need MORE whales / institutions coming in, and gobbling all the market share? Doesn't it then, just become the same fucking problem, that Satoshi Nakamoto was trying to solve? having massive amounts of wealth in the hands of a few? (and hedge against inflation I know I know)
or maybe I can listen to my bum knee.... avoid the potential carnage, and maybe even get even more BTC when I re-buy. You know, for Satoshi's sake.
Your bum knee ticking,
Old Grey Fox....
As always : THIS IS NOT INVESTING ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE AND RESEARCH. THIS IS JUST ME SHARING MY STORIES AND EXPERIENCES. For all you know, I could be wrong and it sky rockets to $100,000 tomorrow. Please keep comments civil. As I like to say, we are highly intelligent individuals capable of expressing ourselves with grace and dignity. Keep it friendly. I'm curious about other people's perspective about the current markets. Just please don't respond with a meme or a gif... this isn't stocktwits/ twitter...
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