Welcome back to NFL Picks!
WEEK 4 SUMMARY
Week 4 let us down a bit!
"You can't convince me the Giants are going to walk into the Superdome and come out with a win. You simply can't."
That's what I said last week. (sigh)
Sunday late afternoon games were a bloodbath, with many underdogs winning. Speaking of underdogs, we correctly predicted the Colts winning and we lost the Falcons game in a stunning and disgusting fashion, in yet another crushing defeat at home for Matty Ice crew.
Let's hope Week 5 turns out to be a bit kinder to us!
TOTALS: 16 picks — 9 correct/7 incorrect (56% accuracy)
BALANCE: $160 placed - $128 as return = -$32
SEASON TOTALS: 64 picks — 38 correct/26 incorrect (59% accuracy)
SEASON BALANCE: $640 placed - $548,9 as return =-$91,1
NOW LET'S MOVE ON TO WEEK 5!
(By the way, I think I'm moving posts to Thursdays from now on. I have slighty better info about the teams coming into the weekend)
Again, all picks are linked with a virtual $10 bet in each of them, and odds according to Betfair.com.
DISCLAIMER: I'm not sponsored by Betfair.com in any way. This will only be added as a reference to win probability in each game. It's all for fun!
BE GENEROUS WITH THE TIPS — TO YOURSELF
COMMENTS ARE ALWATS APPRECIATED!
WEEK 5 PICKS
- LAR @ SEA - Winner: LAR (Odds: 1.65 - Possible payout: $16.5 - Possible profit: $6.5 65%)
- Kicking things off with a divisional game! Rams faced some reckoning against the Cardinals — who are FLYING, by the way — and are looking to get back on track in a hostile environment. The Hawks won a tough game on the road, but it wasn't exactly pretty. I'm taking LAR here because right now they are the better team of these two. Seattle's defensive problems will probably be exposed in this game.
- NYJ @ ATL - Winner: ATL (Odds: 1.55 - Possible payout: $15.5 - Possible profit: $5.5 55%)
- Guys, I SWEAR! This is the last time I pick the Falcons to win a game! If they lose to this Jets team, and lose two weeks in a row against shaky teams... I don't care what happens next. I'm picking against them the rest of the way!
- PHI @ CAR - Winner: CAR (Odds: 1.45 - Possible payout: $14.5 - Possible profit: $14.5 45%)
- Ok, so Dallas proved to be too much for this incredibly sound Panthers team. Help is on the way, though. They've traded for two starting caliber CBs in the last 7 days, making it more possible for the DC to be more adventurous with the pass rush. They have a very modern coaching staff used to the gimmicky college offense the Eagles are running. They should be able to handle this one.
- MIA @ TB - Winner: TB (Odds: 1.16 - Possible payout: $11.6 - Possible profit: $1.6 16%)
- No QB1 for the Dolphins... against the defending champs... away from home. Yeah, I'm picking Brady here.
- NO @ WAS - Winner: NO (Odds: 1.68 - Possible payout: $16.8 - Possible profit: $6.8 68%)
- Veeeeery interesting game right here, folks! Washington — and Heinicke — went into Atlanta and played football for 60 whole minutes, which snatched them a win from the most profound depths of despair. Saints seem to have done the exact opposite, having lost against a dismantled NYG team at home. Such a difficuly pick this one! I'm gonna go with the favorites here, since I'm having a bad time picking the underdogs in general!
- TEN @ JAX - Winner: TEN (Odds: 1.4 - Possible payout: $14 - Possible profit: $4 40%)
- As I've been saying recently, there's no way one can sanely trust this Titans team. They've managed to lose to the Jets last week. But they've also managed to beat Seattle on the road. So unstable! I'm sticking with Tennessee here because the Urban Meyer situation in Florida went from bad to OH MY GOD THIS IS A DUMPSTER FIRE! I feel bad for Trevor Lawrence, though.
- DET @ MIN - Winner: MIN (Odds: 1.2 - Possible payout: $12 - Possible profit: $2 20%)
- So, the Vikings, huh? What a complicated squad to figure out! Good on paper, some solid names coming back from injury, Cousins playing at a solid level... but do you trust them? No, I do not. The Lions coming to town should provide an opportunity for them to keep their fanbase under the evergreen feeling that they can aspire to great things.
- DEN @ PIT - Winner: DEN (Odds: 1.83 - Possible payout: $18.3 - Possible profit: $8.3 83%)
- Hands down, the toughest matchup of the week, but not for the reasons you would want to see. Steelers can't find their rhythm on offense, which should translate into a somewhat easy win for an up-and-coming Broncos team, if they manage to take care of the ball. Teddy should be back for the Broncos, which is great news. I'm taking the team who has shown more at this point of the season
- GB @ CIN - Winner: GB (Odds: 1.55 - Possible payout: $15.5 - Possible profit: $5.5 55%)
- I'm old enough to remember the overreactions to the Packers losing on Week 1 and everyone questioning Rodgers efficiency and even his ethics. He's back to his ever-present "MVP contender" form and, although this is a gritty, much improved Bengals team, I don't think they can handle this red-hot offense.
- NE @ HOU - Winner: NE (Odds: 1.2 - Possible payout: $12 - Possible profit: $2 20%)
- Last Sunday Night was a very small appetizer of what Belichick can still pull out of his hat. He stymied Tom Brady on his return to Foxboro, making a 45-year-old QB question and recalculate his pre-snap reads on the fly. They lost by a hair, and I honestly felt they didn't deserve. Mac Jones also played really well, evolving into what still looks like a very simplified, mistake-free offense designed by McDaniels. The Texans... well, I don't think morale is sky-high after that beating Buffalo handed them. Pats should take it.
- CHI @ LVR - Winner: LVR (Odds: 1.35 - Possible payout: $13.5 - Possible profit: $3.5 35%)
- I'm happy the Justin Fields experiment got an extra week to show its potential. He played much better last week — I know, I know, it was the Lions coming to town. Now he has a very... how can I put it? PECULIAR Raiders team ahead of them, and with a banged-up secondary. But it needs to be reminded that Vegas is still a much better team all around at this point. On top of that, they'll have a very loud crowd pushing them.
- CLE @ LAC - Winner: CLE (Odds: 2.0 - Possible payout: $20 - Possible profit: $10 100%)
- Best game of the week! Easily! Two teams playing awesome football (especially if you're an analytics nerd!). One cannot ignore the recent Justin Herbert front. Definitely MVP Frontrunner, as I see it. Browns, on the other hand, have the boldness and the personnel to give a young QB fits! LAC looked a bit shaky at the interior OL last week and I can definitely see Myles Garrett aligning inside more often than not. This is my upset of the week! I think the Dawgs will take this win back to Ohio!
- NYG @ DAL - Winner: DAL (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $12.8 - Possible profit: $2.8 28%)
- Look, I'm gonna tone down on my arrogance after last week. I'm just gonna say Dallas is the better team and plays at home — and pray to the Heavens the Giants don't make me look foolish.
- SF @ ARI - Winner: ARI (Odds: 1.35 - Possible payout: $13.5 - Possible profit: $3.5 35%)
- My oh my! What a display by the Cardinals last week on the road! This is the team no one wants to face in January. Not only they have a nasty defense, they're managing to win on the road against very good teams. Look out! Niners should be with Trey Lance at the helm. I love the kid, but I wouldn't want to have my first start against that front seven. Cards should win.
- BUF @ KC - Winner: KC (Odds: 1.6 - Possible payout: $16 - Possible profit: $6 60%)
- Can you believe Patrick Mahomes sits at the BOTTOM of the AFC West after 4 weeks? They surely are licking their chops looking at the prospect of putting an end to this and reaffirming their status as SuperBowl contenders. The Bills are surely feeling good right now after an overexposure to a very bad football team all around. I don't think this should be easy for the Chiefs, but they should have enough in the tank to see Buffalo off.
- IND @ BAL - Winner: BAL (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $12.8 - Possible profit: $2.8 28%)
- A banged-up Lamar Jackson had a very good game against a good Broncos defense away from home last week. Harbaugh's crew never ceases to show resilience in difficult times. I don't see them having a problem to beat this Colts team which, despite showing some positives from Carson Wentz and crew, don't seem to have enough to get this road win. Ravens, with relative ease here.
