NFL Picks for Week 4 are here!

By Kuba__ | Parlayment | 30 Sep 2021

Welcome back to NFL Picks!

WEEK 3 SUMMARY

Week 3 was definitely an improvement!

Steelers and Chiefs unpredictable losses hurt us. With those wins, we would have been able to crack a profit. We came very close to it.
We did pick some underdogs correctly though — those being Falcons and Rams.

TOTALS: 16 picks — 11 correct/5 incorrect (69% accuracy)
BALANCE: $160 placed - $155,9 as return = -$4,1

SEASON TOTALS: 48 picks — 29 correct/19 incorrect (65% accuracy)
SEASON BALANCE: $480 placed - $420,9 as return =-$59,1

NOW LET'S MOVE ON TO WEEK 4!

(By the way, I think I'm moving posts to Thursdays from now on. I have slighty better info about the teams coming into the weekend)

Again, all picks are linked with a virtual $10 bet in each of them, and odds according to Betfair.com.

DISCLAIMER: I'm not sponsored by Betfair.com in any way. This will only be added as a reference to win probability in each game. It's all for fun!

BE GENEROUS WITH THE TIPS — TO YOURSELF
COMMENTS ARE ALWATS APPRECIATED!

WEEK 4 PICKS

JAX @ CIN - Winner: CIN (Odds: 1.25 - Possible payout: $12.5 - Possible profit: $2.5 25%)
Should not be a pretty game this one. Both teams have a lot to fix and two QBs with a high ceiling and a lot of talent, but still very raw. Bengals have shown a bit more capability to compete, though.

WAS @ ATL - Winner: ATL (Odds: 1.9 - Possible payout: $19 - Possible profit: $9 90%)
Tough game right out of the gate on Sunday. Will Atlanta finally play a decent game in front of their crowd? Seems like a good game to do so. Ryan needs to keep getting rid of the ball quickly for this thing to work. Heinicke faced a reckoning last Sunday against a real defense at Buffalo. He wasn't that bad though. I like this kid, but not enough to stay out of mishaps against the Falcons. I'm taking the home team.

DET @ CHI - Winner: DET (Odds: 2.25 - Possible payout: $12.5 - Possible profit: $12.5 125%)
One of those games, man! This could really go either way. Neither team is playing like a cohesive unit would do. It seems like the Fields experiment is going to continue — a bit rushed due to injury. Lions have managed to make games a bit closer against their opponents this season though (despite being winless so far). I'm going with the upset here, since I feel like I have much to gain and not much to lose. Bears are not justifying a straight up pick at this point. Not even at home

TEN @ NYJ - Winner: TEN (Odds: 1.25 - Possible payout: $12.5 - Possible profit: $2.5 25%)
It's the Jets. As much as I have great expectations for that defense (and they have not played poorly), winning a game isn't just about that. Your offense has to be merely productive. I don't love what I see from the Titans, but I'm taking them here.They have made a statement by beating Seattle away from home and, you know, looking like a cohesive football team.

CLE @ MIN - Winner: CLE (Odds: 1.65 - Possible payout: $16.5 - Possible profit: $6.5 65%)
Another very tough game. Browns are the better team here, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Dalvin Cook seems on track to play, which is great news for the Vikes. The OL playing in purple has shown great improvement recently, mainly because of offensive adjustments when it comes to the timing of the passes, but I still feel like the defense is going to decide this game. Specifically, the inability of the Vikings secondary to contain Mayfield's weapons.

IND @ MIA - Winner: IND (Odds: 2.1 - Possible payout: $21 - Possible profit: $11 110%)
This week is full of head-scratching matchups! Colts have been struggling this season, but now they face a Dolphins team struggling with their QB situation. Colts themselves aren't very healthy, but this game has that upset smell, you know? I do not trust the Dolphins "in a vacuum", and going behind early on the scoreboard might be just too much for them. It's a risky pick, I know, but I'm picking the upset in this one too.

CAR @ DAL - Winner: DAL (Odds: 1.4 - Possible payout: $14 - Possible profit: $4 40%)
The Panthers seem to be a team that no one can run against so far, but Dak is simply the frontrunner for MVP at this point. That's how I see it. Carolina's secondary will have a lot on their hands this week. I'm betting Dallas hands them their first loss of the season.

NYG @ NO - Winner: NO (Odds: 1.24 - Possible payout: $12.4 - Possible profit: $2.4 24%)
You can't convince me the Giants are going to walk into the Superdome and come out with a win. You simply can't.

HOU @ BUF - Winner: BUF (Odds: 1.04 - Possible payout: $10.4 - Possible profit: $0.4 4%)
Those are some LOW ODDS! Haha! Well, it's not an accident. The Bills have shaken their opening day blues off and are rolling on offense. The Texans are... well, still a mess.

KC @ PHI - Winner: KC (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $12.8 - Possible profit: $2.8 28%)
Dallas have managed to expose the Eagles shortcomings on national television on Monday. An offense based on tricks and gimmicks is always bound to a experience a regression. Facing a pissed-off Chiefs unit is not going to help make things better.

ARI @ LAR - Winner: LAR (Odds: 1.38 - Possible payout: $13.8 - Possible profit: $3.8 38%)
This one should be great. The trench battles should be EPIC! Rams have another great challenge on their hands, on back to back weeks. Gladly they're at home against a team that seems prone to conceding a lot of points. I expect McVay's boys to enough to get away with a W.

SEA @ SF - Winner: SF (Odds: 1.62 - Possible payout: $16.2 - Possible profit: $6.2 62%)
This is another one of those games that has a 'scent of upset' coming out of it. The Seahawks find themselves in the harshest division of the league and they can't afford to lose another game. But so are the 49ers, which have somehow allowed a win to slip away from their hands at home against Rodgers. This should be a battle until the very last possession. I just see the Seahawks having more problems stopping offenses than the Niners. Turnovers should be a key to this game.

BAL @ DEN - Winner: DEN (Odds: 1.9 - Possible payout: $19 - Possible profit: $9 90%)
So, Teddy Bridgewater really is Captain Efficiency, isn't he? Hopefully, the Ravens get their starting DL back for this one. But I still think the Broncos have enough to come out on top. I fully expect Fangio to deploy a gameplan that aims to force Lamar Jackson to pass. This isn't the Lions defense anymore.

PIT @ GB - Winner: GB (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $12.8 - Possible profit: $2.8 28%)
So, that Week 1 win against Buffalo had me and a lot of people gauging this Steelers unit wrong. They don't look so good since that and the Packers are looking way better. Should be a comfortable win for the Pack.

TB @ NE - Winner: TB (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $12.8 - Possible profit: $2.8 28%)
This game has more to offer due to its historical nuances than it has on the actual field of play. Pats' offense seems to have been simplified enough to help the rookie QB into a smooth transition to the pros, but it hasn't been enough to put up 20-25 points consistently. And that, friends, is not enough points to win an NFL game in 2021. Bucs should shake off the loss to the Rams — the first in 10 months — with ease.

LVR @ LAC - Winner: LAC (Odds: 1.52 - Possible payout: $15.2 - Possible profit: $5.2 52%)
This one should end week 4 with a bang! Two undefeated teams battling inside a very competitive division. Raiders red-hot passing unit facing one of the brightest young defensive minds in the league. I'm taking the Chargers here, since I've seen way too many miscues and lack of ability to close games out from Gruden's unit. Justin Herbert played an absolutely perfect game against a very tough opponent away from home last Sunday. Efficient, but also bold. I don't even think he has to be that perfect to win this Monday Night game.