Welcome back to NFL Picks!
WEEK 2 SUMMARY
Well, week 2 wasn't so great!
The element of random decided a few games, which kept me from at least breaking even, although I did pick the majority of the picks correctly.
Seattle losing to the Titans at home was the craziest thing I've seen in a while. Chiefs losing a game that was basically on their hands didn't help either!
But you live and learn — or not! Hahaha
TOTALS: 16 picks — 10 correct/6 incorrect (63% accuracy)
BALANCE: $160 placed - $138,8 as return = -$21,2
SEASON TOTALS: 32 picks — 18 correct/14 incorrect (56% accuracy)
SEASON BALANCE: $320 placed - $265 as return =-$55
NOW LET'S MOVE ON TO WEEK 3!
Again, all picks are linked with a virtual $10 bet in each of them, and odds according to Betfair.com.
DISCLAIMER: I'm not sponsored by Betfair.com in any way. This will only be added as a reference to win probability in each game. It's all for fun!
BE GENEROUS WITH THE TIPS — TO YOURSELF
COMMENTS ARE ALWATS APPRECIATED!
WEEK 3 PICKS
- CAR @ HOU - Winner: CAR (Odds: 1.2 - Possible payout: $12 - Possible profit: $2 20%)
- Ok, we kick things off with a game that looks rather simple. Panthers right now have the best defense in the league and HOU starting QB is injured for the foreseeable future. Carolina should get a W here, no problem.
- ARI @ JAX - Winner: ARI (Odds: 1.22 - Possible payout: $12.2 - Possible profit: $2.2 22%)
- One of the best (if not the best) front-7 in the league facing a rookie QB. Recipe for disaster for the Jaguars. Look for a high-octane offensive display by Murray & Co. as well.
- IND @ TEN - Winner: TEN (Odds: 1.35 - Possible payout: $13.5 - Possible profit: $3.5 35%)
- What is it with Carson Wentz that makes him so vulnerable to injury? I like the guy, not gonna lie. But at this point it's really hard to pick the Colts to win away from home against a fired-up Titans team that managed to steal a W at Seattle.
- BAL @ DET - Winner: BAL (Odds: 1.2 - Possible payout: $12 - Possible profit: $2 20%)
- I... can't... really see a reason to go any other way on this one. Sorry, Detroit.
- WAS @ BUF - Winner: BUF (Odds: 1.22 - Possible payout: $12.2 - Possible profit: $2.2 22%)
- Heinicke proved he is able to replace a starting QB in the NFL. Only this time, he plays a nasty defense away from home. I expect this game to be closer than expected, but never out of the Bills' control.
- NO @ NE - Winner: NE (Odds: 1.6 - Possible payout: $16 - Possible profit: $6 60%)
- First interesting matchup of the week. Do we know who the Saints really are at this point? We've seen certified Jekyll and Hyde performances in Week 1 and 2. I'm taking Pats here since it's always so hard to play in New England. Close game though. I'm counting on the Pats winning the turnover battle and, for that reason, the game.
- LAC @ KC - Winner: KC (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $12.8 - Possible profit: $2.8 28%)
- One turnover in a very unfortunate moment costs this fantastic team a game. Not the first time it happens for Mahomes crew. On the bright side, it seems that, with the exception of the last SuperBowl, a last-minute turnover is the only way to beat this team. Chargers should keep it manageable over the course of the game, but never actually get ahead on the scoreboard.
- CHI @ CLE - Winner: CLE (Odds: 1.28 - Possible payout: $12.8 - Possible profit: $2.8 28%)
- It seems Fields' Time is upon us! Exciting! And he's gonna have a lot in his hands playing against one of the most complete rosters in the league. I'm expecting the Browns defense to bounce back after a disappointing and unexpected start of this season.
- CIN @ PIT - Winner: PIT (Odds: 1.45 - Possible payout: $14.5 - Possible profit: $4.5 45%)
- Big Ben and crew let me down big time last week. They need to make a statement about this team's ability to compete this season, despite an aging QB. They can't the league think that their best player is the defensive unit. Against the Raiders, they've failed to deliver. They should be feasting against a banged-up OL this week.
- ATL @ NYG - Winner: ATL (Odds: 2.25 - Possible payout: $22.5 - Possible profit: $12.5 125%)
- My upset candidate of the week. It came to a point that I really thought the Falcons were going to beat the defending champs in Tampa. They've played out of their minds! Why can't that team perform like that on a weekly basis? Anyways, I think a bit less than that should already be enough to take the W this week. Giants injuries are piling up in the offensive line department.
- MIA @ LVR - Winner: LVR (Odds: 1.45 - Possible payout: $14.5 - Possible profit: $4.5 45%)
- I'm really sad to see Tua getting injured. I had high hopes for the Dolphins this season, but it's hard to envision things progressing smoothly with Brissett at the helm. Raiders should roll here — if they stay focused.
- NYJ @ DEN - Winner: DEN (Odds: 1.12 - Possible payout: $11.2 - Possible profit: $1.2 12%)
- Zach Wilson looks like someone determined to break Peyton Manning's record... for most interceptions as a rookie. Teddy Ballgame, on the other hand, looks like the QB the Vikings wanted him to become. Sad for them that he now plays for the Broncos. Should be a relatively easy game for Denver.
- TB @ LAR - Winner: LAR (Odds: 1.9 - Possible payout: $19 - Possible profit: $9 90%)
- My oh my! I'm licking my chops thinking of this game! So many stars and shootout potential. Gronk, Donald, Brady, Stafford, Suh, AB, Ramsey... I'm sticking with the home team on this one. Bucs are on a long trip, plus timezones. They should be able to make this a last-team-with-the-ball-wins kinda game, though.
- SEA @ MIN - Winner: SEA (Odds: 1.75 - Possible payout: $17.5 - Possible profit: $7.5 75%)
- What the heck should I be expecting out of this game? Hahah! Vikings played way above expectations against a great team in Arizona. Seattle lost a game that was under their control, and at home of all places. One of those games that can go either way. I will be taking Seahawks because I can't really see Vikings defense being able to stop Russell Wilson targets on one-on-one matchups.
- GB @ SF - Winner: GB (Odds: 1.4 - Possible payout: $14 - Possible profit: $4 40%)
- They really did save all the tough matchups for the late window this time, didn't they? Packers bounced back with the traditional beating of the Lions at home, and they're surely feeling pretty again. Should be a good test for the 49ers, which seemed to struggle a bit last week. Expect Shanahan to expose the Packers defensive vulnerabilities.
- PHI @ DAL - Winner: DAL (Odds: 1.4 - Possible payout: $14 - Possible profit: $4 40%)
- Rivalry? Check! Two teams on the rise? Check! Eli Manning making jokes about both teams on ESPN2? You bet. Should be an amazing game. Not a shootout, but a well-fought battle. Eagles are looking like one of those teams that should experience a regression-to-the-mean late in the season, but until we get to that, they should be tough meat to chew. But Dak is playing at an amazing level right now, and they did overcome a good team away from home last week. They made me look bad last week, so I'm going with them this week
