Hello everyone,
Welcome to NFL Picks!
In this blog, over the course of the season, I'll be trying to hit as many winners as possible in the NFL weeks.
I'll be trying to pick the winners of EVERY SINGLE GAME until the Super Bowl.
I'll also be adding short comments about my picks, brushing over the reasons for each one, and putting the odds beside each pick, according to Betfair.com. I'll be considering a $10 bet in each game (regardless of how likely I think the result is going to be). The main goal here is to get as many winners right as possible, not at all for the money!!! And we'll see here we land at the end of the season!
DISCLAIMER: I'm not sponsored by Betfair.com in any way. This will only be added as a reference to win probability in each game. It's all for fun!
Now this here is crucial: all sorts of comments are appreciated! Just be polite haha! I'd love to measure myself up with anyone else who is able to do a better job. Also, be veeeeery generous with the tips to yourself. This is, again, all in good fun and a way for me to publicly commit to "get the winners right".
So I hope to see you here every Wednesday!
Now that the greetings and presentations are out of the way, LET'S GET TO IT!
WEEK 1 PICKS
- DAL @ TB - Winner: TB (Odds: 1.2 - Possible payout: $12 - Possible profit: $2 20%)
- Tough to imagine the Cowboys leaving Florida with a W here, especially against the reigning champs and without Zack Martin. Bucs go 1-0.
- PIT @ BUF - Winner: BUF (Odds: 1.3 - Possible payout: $13 - Possible profit: $3 30%)
- It would be a bit of a surprise to see a team that was so well coached last season to fall for the Steelers at home to open the season.
- NYJ @ CAR - Winner: NYJ (Odds: 2.9 - Possible payout: $29 - Possible profit: $19 190%)
- UPSET ALERT!! Call me crazy, but I don't think this is going to be an easy game for the Panthers. It's not like the Jets are a certain thing, but I'm excited about that defensive unit the Jets are building under HC Saleh.
- JAX @ HOU - Winner: JAX (Odds: 1.5 - Possible payout: $15 - Possible profit: $5 50%)
- Life is never easy for rookie QBs, but the Texans are, until proven otherwise, a mess. It's not like I feel the Jags will run away with this game, but I think they have the edge here.
- ARI @ TEN - Winner: ARI (Odds: 2.2 - Possible payout: $22 - Possible profit: $12 120%)
- I know, I know... the Titans have a great defensive unit and a sturdy mentality, but I'm picking the upset here: Cardinals offense will just be too much.
- PHI @ ATL - Winner: ATL (Odds: 1.58 - Possible payout: $15.8 - Possible profit: $5.8 58%)
- I do not feel super confident on this one. It's week 1 after all... but I think Ryan being at QB gives the Falcons an edge.
- LAC @ WAS - Winner: WAS (Odds: 1.83 - Possible payout: $18.3 - Possible profit: $8.3 83%)
- I'm super excited to see what Staley is going to do as a HC, and this is a great roster, loaded with talent and a promising QB. But hey, Week 1 is the week Chargers fans always go to bed with their hearts in small pieces. But this is for sure the toughest game of the week to pick a winner. It can go either way.
- SF @ DET - Winner: SF (Odds: 1.22 - Possible payout: $12.2 - Possible profit: $2.2 22%)
- Shanahan's offense might be just too much for a new HC and new defensive system. Just too much to be prepared for. Regardless of the Niners QB.
- SEA @ IND - Winner: SEA (Odds: 1.65 - Possible payout: $16.5 - Possible profit: $6.5 65%)
- I'm going with Seahawks explosive offense to be the deciding factor here. Just the usual R. Wilson having the ball last and getting that W.
- MIN @ CIN - Winner: MIN (Odds: 1.5 - Possible payout: $15 - Possible profit: $5 50%)
- Not an easy game at all! Bengals have had problems during camp, especially at the OL. But the Vikings have a lot to get together after a disappointing season in 2020. Vikings win, but it's close.
- MIA @ NE - Winner: MIA (Odds: 2.2 - Possible payout: $22 - Possible profit: $12 120%)
- Dolphins could not have asked for a better chance to make a statement in the division: meeting their nemesis at Foxboro while the weather is still firm... and facing a rookie QB. Of course, it's Belichick on the opposite sideline, but I feel Miami is in better shape here. Should be a low-scoring game.
- CLE @ KC - Winner: KC (Odds: 1.32 - Possible payout: $13.2 - Possible profit: $3.2 32%)
- I'm super excited to see the Browns playing as well, they look like contenders in the AFC. But going into Arrowhead against a fired-up Chiefs. I'm sorry, but I can't! Mahomes should be back to his superstar form.
- DEN @ NYG - Winner: DEN (Odds: 1.58 - Possible payout: $15.8 - Possible profit: $5.8 58%)
- In short: I don't think this is going to be pretty. Daniel Jones with a lot to answer. Teddy B looking to win the QB1 spot for good, but still very conservative with long balls. This could very well be an "upset".
- GB @ NO - Winner: GB (Odds: 1.42 - Possible payout: $14.2 - Possible profit: $4.2 42%)
- A-Rod's last dance? We can't quite be sure at this time. The Saints look like they have a lot to figure out in the first month of the season. You just don't part ways with Brees and install a new well-oiled machine right out of the gate. Packers should take this one.
- CHI @ LAR - Winner: LAR (Odds: 1.25 - Possible payout: $12.5 - Possible profit: $2.5 25%)
- So... the Bears really went with Dalton, huh? While Foles and Fields are on the bench... man, it's... tough. Tough is all I can muster. Really excited and anticipating the idea of a live arm like Stafford running the show for McVay! I'll go with the easy pick here. I can't see this going the other way.
- BAL @ LVR - Winner: BAL (Odds: 1.4 - Possible payout: $14 - Possible profit: $4 40%)
- To me, this game looks a lot closer than it's being conceived. Not that the Ravens aren't the better team here, but... well, it's Week 1. Raiders could very well come up with a creative way to stop Lamar Jackson. And since their RB room looks like a medical tent in a war front, that would mean no running game. I'm still going with the Ravens, though.
