On Nov. 12, Arcane Asset Chief Information Officer (CIO) Eric Wall wagered $1 million that PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model would fail within the next 5 years. The bet comes after PlanB said a few days prior that he was confident in the model.
- Wall put up the bet for $1 million, saying that the often-cited S2F model would be broken by 2025
- PlanB tweeted on Nov. 8 that he had no doubt that Bitcoin would trade in the $100,000 - $288,000 range by Dec. 2021 and that 2021 would be a spectacular year for the asset
- PlanB cited a reduction in supply as being a prime cause for a Bitcoin rally, which he has said could occur gradually into 2021 or through a sudden surge
- Wall said that the model wouldn’t even reach 50% of its target range, and would lock up funds with a third party to back up the belief
- BlockTower Capital and CIO Ari Paul also bet against the accuracy of the model with 3:1 odds
- The S2FX model has been one of the more accurate pricing models, calling correctly the 2017 high and 2019 low
- Critics have said that the model would eventually break as it was unsustainable
