During Trump's previous presidency, there was a noticeable button on his desk - a wooden box measuring approximately 20 by 8 cm with a gold presidential seal on it. Trump's former special assistant Criff Sims, in his book Team of Vipers, stated that during a meeting, Trump pressed this button to joke and tense up his guests and said, "I'm going to end the world now." The guests were shocked for the first few seconds, but then they laughed briefly. At that moment, an attendant entered the office with an iced Diet Coke on a silver tray. The button, which was on the agenda during the former presidency, was taken back to the same place. Former President Obama used this button to ask his guests for tea. Today, I will not tell you the story of a button. I will not talk about Trump's playful side either. Today, there is a possibility that a new button that could really start a war could be placed on the table. So what does this mean?
We know that Trump has had a tough attitude towards Iran since his first term. In this article, I will explain Trump's view of Iran and the military reinforcements made around Iran since January 20, 2025. What could America's target be? Why does he want to strike? Is their aim to completely destroy Iran or to destroy its nuclear capacity and strain its economy? Is the former Shah's son Reza Pahlavi included in the equation? We will seek answers to these and related questions.
Let's start with the possible plan Trump has in mind; he wants high energy prices. America has been a net exporter of energy for many years. Especially due to the increasing supply of shale oil and shale gas, the share of energy in its high imports has decreased significantly. First of all, we cannot expect Israel not to be included in this plan. The US administration, which took concrete steps in the first period in recognizing Jerusalem as the capital and the annexation of the Golan Heights, is completely behind Prime Minister Netanyahu. Iran is the main enemy that must be destroyed or its influence minimized for both the US administration and Israel.
Former Prime Minister Bennett wrote on social media that we must take action now to destroy Iran's nuclear program, central energy facilities and fatally cripple this terrorist regime. Hezbollah and Hamas are paralyzed, so Iran's hands are tied." Bennett describes himself as more right-wing than Netanyahu. If the decision were in Israel's hands, they are in favor of taking a position that would destroy all of Iran.
A year later, Iran gradually suspended its own nuclear activities, the things it stopped and slowed down under the terms of this agreement. Therefore, since 2019, we have actually seen that the Iranian nuclear program has been progressing very rapidly. It has been 6 years and we can see that no barriers have been hit in this regard. Therefore, there is a situation that has emerged as a very urgent agenda item in front of the US right now. Iran's nuclear program and its sphere of influence in the Middle East are being narrowed down. Many steps have been taken in the past towards this end. If I have to give examples, I can show the assassination of Fakhrizadeh, the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran, the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, and the assassination of Hamas leader Sinwar.
Iran's nuclear program is geographically dispersed and fortified uranium It consists of production, enrichment fields, mining and research facilities. It is considered almost impossible to completely destroy them. Hitting the facilities or completely eliminating them will not completely end the program, it will only set it back. Because there is a wealth of knowledge developed by Iran on this subject for years. You have to eliminate all engineers, knowledge holders, decision makers and the military echelon, and this is very difficult.
After the Iranian nuclear crisis broke out in 2002, the US developed several policies to prevent this crisis. One of these was economic sanctions, another was diplomacy, and another was a military operation option that was always on the table but has not been used since then. We can actually read the current buildup from this perspective. The Trump administration in the US is aware that the Iranian nuclear crisis is a very urgent agenda item again. Diplomatic channels are currently being sought, but if these channels are blocked and do not lead to anything, I can say that they are building up a military buildup in the region in order to use military operations. For a possible ground attack, local elements can be evaluated instead of American soldiers. For this, contact is being established with the Taliban administration in Afghanistan. Because it is known that the Taliban has tense relations with Iran. In 2023, there were days of clashes between Iranian border guards and the Taliban. In addition, since the historical and ongoing Iran-Afghanistan water problem cannot be resolved through dialogue, a fait accompli may be created on the ground and an attempt may be made to resolve it.
Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesman Balkhi stated that the administration is open to countries, including the US, that want to invest in Afghanistan's mining sector. From this, we understand that America, a historical enemy, is no longer as evil as it used to be in the eyes of the Taliban. The Taliban government released two American prisoners within Trump's first 24 hours in office. Even the slightest attack on Iran could open the curtain to new low-intensity conflicts that will last for years. We may also encounter methods such as countless sorties, attacks on American bases in the vicinity, and even bombings and assassinations. In an interview with NBC, Trump openly threatened Iran. If they do not make an agreement, there will be bombing, and it will be a bombing of a kind they have never seen before. This statement received wide coverage in X and was interpreted as Trump signaling war against Iran.
In early February, posts emerged indicating that America was increasing its military presence in the Middle East within the framework of Trump's maximum pressure policy against Iran. Tanker planes continue to arrive in the Middle East. In addition, intensive shipments to the military base in the Indian Ocean are also ongoing. In particular, additional naval elements were sent to the Persian Gulf and its surroundings to provide deterrence against groups that Iran sees as proxy forces. It was shared that the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier was deployed in the Red Sea with the threat of blocking Iranian oil exports and continued its operations against Houthi attacks.
Let's talk about the American military equipment sent to the Iranian vicinity. More than 140 heavy transport aircraft landed in Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan throughout March. The base on Diego Garcia island in the Indian Ocean is especially used. The island hosts B52 bombers, C-17 transport aircraft, KC135 fuel planes and P-8 reconnaissance aircraft. B52s also have the ability to be invisible to radar. These aircraft were also used in airstrikes against the Houthis. They can also carry the GBU57 Massive Ordinance Penetrator ammunition. This has the capacity to destroy targeted Iranian facilities underground and above ground. The F35 fleet deployed to Saudi Arabia in March 2025 was sent to provide deterrence against Iran's ballistic missile capacity and to be used in possible air operations. The A10 aircraft deployed to Jordan throughout March were dispatched to provide close air support to Iranian-backed militia groups.
In addition, a large number of Patriot and THAAD air defense systems were brought to the region. The USS Harry Truman aircraft carrier, which extended its mission in the Red Sea, continues its presence on the Red Sea-Iran line. If Iran retaliates by closing the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis it supports close the Strait of Bab al-Mandab, global inflation may rise. In addition, there may be a break in production chains due to the disruption of supply. Iran demonstrated its strength by testing long-range ballistic missiles and Shahid-136 UAVs in a drill at the beginning of April. When we look at this situation regionally, I can say that it is very important in terms of the balance of power when we ask why the Iranian nuclear program is important. Because nuclear weapons or nuclear activities are actually a very important agenda item both in terms of prestige and military strategic planning. I can say that it is a much more powerful weapon, not like other conventional weapons. Therefore, it is a subject that other countries are following closely. Therefore, the nuclear program is also an important agenda item.
Pezeshkian announced in March 2025 that he rejected direct negotiations with the US. However, he left the door open to indirect negotiations. Iran sent its responses to the US via Oman and said that trust must be built. Iran-backed militias have been on high alert against the US buildup. In Yemen, the Houthis have increased their drone and missile attacks on US ships in the Red Sea. When we look to see if some steps are being taken, we only see drills. Apart from this, I think the most effective method Iran is currently doing against this buildup is actually trying to open the way for negotiations. Because we are seeing positive statements about negotiations from high-level figures in the Iranian Foreign Ministry and some high-level figures in the Ministry of Defense. In other words, Iran is actually trying to soften the atmosphere a little bit right now, trying to show that it is open to negotiations. I can say that Iran is trying to open the way for diplomacy in return for the US shipment.
Iranian religious leader Khamenei states that if Trump implements his threats, a harsh response will be given. When we look at it now, Iran does not have much that it can use as a tool, to be honest. Because I can say that Iran has lost those tools that it could use as deterrence with the steps such as weakening Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria since 2023. It is currently trying to open the door to diplomacy a little more. So where does the son of the former Iranian shah, Pahlavi, stand in this? In 2018, during the demonstrations in Iran, he said that the regime had banned social media in the country and that America should provide technological support to the demonstrators. He mainly uses the X account and his official YouTube channel for communication. He visited Israel with his wife Yasmin on April 17, 2023. He met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Herzog.
While the Mahsa Amini protests continued in 2023, he collected 460,000 signatures on the change.org platform. The purpose of this signature was to take over Iran and overthrow the religious regime. In July 2024, he criticized Pezeshkian for allegedly having close relations with Hezbollah. So, we can understand that he is waiting on the alert for a possible change in Iran. In addition, America may turn to cyber attacks, power outages and various sabotage activities, not just military elements. The regions used aim to take Iran into a strategic circle. However, this situation also increases the risk of tensions turning into a hot conflict. As of April 2025, both sides are in a race for deterrence and preparation.
Trump may order at least a few bombings on Iran during his term in office. However, he may wait until the Ukrainian War is completely over for a definitive order. Because even the smallest pebble thrown at Iran will increase energy prices. This will benefit America. Because it means that it will earn more money in a position where it has been a net exporter of energy for many years. However, the same will be true for Russia. Therefore, instead of Russia in war making a lot of money and prolonging the war, it would be preferable for Russia in peace to make money. It would be beneficial for energy importing countries to replenish their natural gas and fuel stocks against new energy crises.
Additionally, Trump will visit Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in May. I do not expect an attack on Iran before these visits. He may ask Opec Plus to increase its oil supply. In return, the Arab world may ask him to increase pressure on Iran and Venezuela and fill the market share that will be vacated by them with their own oil. In addition, a blow to Iran's nuclear capacity will also keep the country busy as it will force Iran to acquire this capacity again. Of course, almost all of this capacity is underground, so it is debatable whether it can be directly targeted in a military operation.
The extra customs duties announced by Trump and covering almost the entire world have come to the point of collapsing all markets. For example, the Hong Kong stock exchange closed the day with a 13.12% decrease, even greater than the collapse of the Asian tigers in 1997. Taiwan Stock Exchange shrank by 9.6% and other countries' stock exchanges by Japan by 9.5%, Italy by 8.4%, China by 7%, Germany by 6.8% and Sweden by 7%. So, how will the slightest attack on Iran affect this situation at a time when the world's economic plans are so variable and tend to shrink? I await your comments. Thank you for reading my article.
