Given the pace of change in artificial intelligence, I sat down and tried to imagine what the world would look like in 2036. The present is changing faster than anyone can keep up with; this makes predicting ten years out both harder than usual and, in my view, more useful. I am using this thought experiment to re-examine how I position my own portfolio. I sought the views of colleagues during this process and am grateful for their ideas; I have incorporated many of them.
Driven by AI-fueled productivity gains, the stock market is delivering annual returns of approximately 10% between 2026 and 2036—a rate close to its long-term average. AI-driven productivity gains are reflected in earnings long before they appear in government statistics.
The world's five largest companies are Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Anthropic. Nineteen ETFs featuring various versions of the word "Mat" have been launched; one of them is 10x leveraged.
Meta’s trading volume exceeds $10 trillion. Every image on every social platform is purchasable; intermediaries know what every person in the world wants before they even ask for it, capturing a share of every stage from ideation to purchase.
The first AI-induced personal bankruptcy made national headlines; the resulting lawsuit was settled for an undisclosed sum, and "limits on agent discretion" became a standard field in every brokerage firm's onboarding process.
US stocks trade 24/7. The final closing bell will ring in 2031, and the item will be sold at auction. Ken Griffin displays it in his seventh home.
The assets of an ETF based on sports results exceed those of the largest actively managed value fund. No one at the SEC is happy about this, but the fund management company sponsors *College Gameday*, so none of us really care.
"Director of Agent Workforce" is a standard title in corporate organizational charts, and those holding it earn more than the CFO.
More than 80% of web pages are generated by AI. Those not generated by AI intentionally include typos to signal human authorship.
One of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 by market capitalization has fewer than 5,000 employees. The company's Director of Agent Workforce oversees 40 million direct workers. An all-hands meeting can fit into a hotel ballroom.
Passwords no longer exist. Quantum computing in general—and Quantum Day in particular—has permanently changed how we access our accounts and information. Future generations won't know what a password is, and you will patiently explain it to them, right alongside landline phones and the blue links you used to click when "Googling" something.
