Earlier in May , I analysed the possible aftermaths of the block reward halving, from 12.5 to 6.25 and the direct result of miner's lower productivity. As predicted, even if the supply was lower, the demand is still high.
The price after the halving didn't fluctuate much, making venture capitalists predict that Bitcoin will put together a face-melting rally in the next bull run, skyrocketing nearly 1,500% to $150,000 in a new bull cycle. I still consider this prediction highly exaggerated but for certain ... Bitcoin is preparing a monster growth in 2020
Which are the signs and factors indicating the monster growth?
The BTC's price has seen low volatility throughout the past six weeks, hovering between $9500 and $9999 for most of the time. This hinted traders and investors that it is very likely that a massive price movement will follow in the near term.
Over the last 12 months, Bitcoin has seen two extended ranges. The first one happened in June 2019 and the second in December 2019. In both instances, the price of Bitcoin price increased by 40%, compared to the previous months. As the pattern suggests, a new price rise may happen this summer, with a month or two delay due to the block reward halving.
The traders foresee a two-stage scenarios, a rejection stage when the price will drop under $9,200, maybe down until $7,000, which will be followed by the price surge to potentially see the start to a newfound rally. Because of the predicted price drop, Bitcoin entered in an “investors fear zone”, suggesting that traders are becoming increasingly cautious about the short-term investments in Bitcoin. However, three main factors may shift the price trend of Bitcoin, and dissipate the short-term investing fear.
The first factor is the risk of miners selling more Bitcoin after a difficulty adjustment and aftermaths of the halving while the the second is the JPMorgan Chase's praise of Bitcoin. Last week, JPMorgan Chace said that Bitcoin has "staying power" after surviving the March crash, when the value fell to $3600. The low value was followed by a V-shape recovery in less than three months, with Bitcoin reaching values above $10,000. JPMorgan Chase positive mention, the praise and change in stance towards Bitcoin means a powerful back-up for the future price. The third influencing factor is the increased trust in cryptocurrencies as a direct result of the BLM protests and the anti-governmental movements.
Analysts are saying that for Bitcoin to hit $100,000, it would need to achieve a market capitalization of $2.1 trillion, meaning nearly 25% of the market cap of gold. For this to be achieved, the perception of Bitcoin as an established store of value has to increase and institutional, retail, futures and options market activity will have to reach new levels. Thinking about today's perception of Bitcoin and how few years ago not many had a single clue about cryptocurrencies, the target is achievable.
The monster price rise will come, hopefully sooner than later.
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