I continue to dig deeper into the reality behind crypto. Meeting this person and that person, working on projects instead of just trading them, moving through various groups that are able to leverage early partnerships. It sobers you a bit, and informs you how previous cycles turned out the way they did.

It also informs me that this bull cycle, if there is one, will make fewer people rich than the last one.

When your favored influencoor starts barking about this or that altcoin on Twitter or Youtube, it doesn't hit the same way in 2024, does it? The Bitboys and Mario Nawfals are coasting on their past success, but they are losing influence. Gaining traction are the adults in the room — the ones who are here to clean things up for the sole purpose of locking out the riff raff before taking the lion's share of everything.

When you say "bull cycle," what you're really saying is VCs are willing to throw down risky bets in larger scale than in comparative cycles. I can say from the inside that VCs are much more disciplined about their cash now. There won't be any more Warwick brother stories — goofies who come in with exactly zero market experience raising millions from VCs before bilking tens of millions from retail —

No, you're gonna need verifiable experience to get those VC investments now. Which means any future bull cycle will be much more disciplined than any previous.

This isn't because VCs prefer discipline; chaos is good for cash. It's because VCs know the average seed, Series A, Series B and KOL group investor is smarter now. Everybody wants their money NOW, so there are fewer people willing to hold a less advantageous vesting on the promise of product revenues.

The Cantillon effect ensures less of this more directed money will flow down to retail buyers. So you can expect a few tokens to absolutely skyrocket, but most will not. You'll get a ton of nee vaporware on public launchpads; I'd stay away from them unless you're an expert at the short term flip. But even then you have to deal with the capricious nature of these tokens — teams can simply lie about vesting terms or just change them after the fact. 

And oh yeah, this happens whether Kamala or Donald gets in. Donald might give the market more of an initial boost, but the overall outcome will be the same.

Yup.

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