Hello everyone, it's me again Crypto.vn. Surely everyone has wondered if the market has a wave, or a certain narrative/trend, how do we know which projects benefit from it? Or if you already know which projects will benefit, how can you filter out the 1-2 most prominent projects? Today I will help everyone clarify this issue
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First, let's take a look at the upcoming major events this year that can impact the crypto market:

- BTC, ETH ETF Spot Approval Deadline:
List of coins that can benefit the most: BTC Ecosystem, RWA
- NVDIA Financial Report
List of coins that can benefit the most: AI
- Dencun Upgrade (ETH)
List of coins that can benefit the most: Layer2, LSD/LSDfi

So how do you know what big events are happening and which coin categories will benefit from them?
First of all, people have to search hard for news about the big events above, because big news will often be repeated many times by many media channels. Next, the above concepts are called Narrative. , Narrative is a story created from a series of events and information in the market so that the crowd forms a belief that there will be an opportunity in the future. Narrative in the Crypto industry refers to the creation and dissemination of ideas, stories, beliefs, and excitement related to an event, project, or a specific sector within the crypto industry.
The way to know which categories benefit from Narratives is to learn what makes up a Narrative.

-Events: Is the event big or not? Is it strong enough to attract the attention of a large enough market? Sometimes a non-crypto event can also affect the market although not too much. For example, BTC Halving, ETH Upgrades are a big market event, NVDIA's financial statements seem to have nothing to do with crypto, but it is also a catalyst for coins in the AI ​​system.

-Timelines: Timeline of the event, some major events have fixed dates, there are also some events with unknown dates or may be postponed such as ETH upgrades, rumor has it that Dencun Upgrades may was moved to Q1/2024

-Catalyst: means positive elements, verified signs, or keywords that can become the general development trend of a certain field in the next narrative.

-Insight: What is the message that the narrative wants to convey to the market, and does it really affect the market?
-> Need to clearly understand its formation concept, combined with in-depth analysis, people can analyze which coin categories will benefit the most.

Project selection criteria
Below are the basic standards for evaluating a project that increases in price sharply when entering a wave. Of course, each person has a different standard, but in general, no matter what everyone's investment taste is, they still need to Remember these 3 principles:

CHOOSE THE RIGHT PROJECT
CHOOSE THE RIGHT PRICE
CHOOSE THE RIGHT TIME

And the right thinking when investing in waves:
Investing in a project must have many reasonable reasons
Depends on each time situation and market liquidity
How much capitalization to buy and at what time?
Choose the wave lead or project below, for example LDO or MKR ARE BOTH BILLION DOLLAR LEAD PROJECTS => It may not be the most profitable but the wave lead is the safest.

1. Trend/Narratives- Catalyst-Cash Flow
First, before choosing to discount a project, we must determine what will push those projects to increase in price. Factors that can promote a project's price to increase sharply compared to the general level can be Event, Roadmap, Partner Cooperation, Cash Flow, Narratives, Trend, etc. However, the above reasons can be impact the market in the short, medium or long term and to have good profits, people should prioritize the medium and long term.

2. Fundamental Analysis/Background Analysis
There are quite a few clear presentations on the basic research steps for a project, so I will highlight the factors to highlight to find the most outstanding project in an industry group with cash flow.
-Investment Fund/Backer/Market Maker: For me, this is the most important factor because most projects need to have a good launch pad for the token price to "moon". If the project does not have MM to support the price, the chart will be left adrift. Prioritize entities that have had great success in the past. Good funds include a16z, Binance Labs, etc. Good MM funds include Jump, Wintermute, etc. These are good funds that tend to follow medium and long-term waves. .

- Tokenomics: Allocation rate, price of seed rounds, private, current circulating supply, token unlock schedule=> Find out which project has the least outward inflation rate and which tokenomics MM has the ability to push up the price tallest.

- Product analysis: The special competitive advantage of that project compared to other projects in the same segment such as comparing TVL, revenue, profit, fees,...

- Current operating situation: Check whether the dev team is working hard or not, are they updating work progress continuously? Check project updates on Telegram, X (twitter), Blog: Is the interaction real? or Partner, is their Partner reputable?

- Onchain: Prioritize newly created wallets to collect goods, collect tokens from the exchange, developers collect tokens, famous people collect goods. For example, recently when there was a wave on the Korean exchange, the Korea Blockchain event, our research team found KNC and discovered that KNC was collected directly by Upbit from another exchange, not released or scanned. In Vitalik Buterin's wallet, besides ETH, KNC is the token that Vitalik is holding the most. KNC must have some value that Vitalik holds, right??

- Some other secondary criteria: Prioritize projects mentioned by KOLs or large funds. For example, CFG in the previous article, when there are light waves of RWAs, in the research article, CFG is mentioned in the Binance Research report.
=> Find the best quality project, to buy or follow in general terms of a wave

Note: There are some differences in the factors above when it comes to short-term, medium-term and long-term waves. For example, in a short and medium-term wave, the most important factor is the backer factor to see how well they can drive the price, but for a long-term wave, it also combines tokenomics, product factors, etc. . . Generally speaking, experience cannot be true for all cases

3. Chart-Technical Analysis
-Based on capitalization to find entry-target: That means people must be able to estimate the relative price levels that people are willing to buy. For example, for a genuine Socialfi project, the reasonable price during a downtrend is 50-100M which is acceptable to buy (must combine fundamental analysis and chart factors to decide).
- Chart: Timing according to cumulative time, measuring price + time amplitude, chart with good support from MM, cumulative Phases combined with MA, EMA,..
- Volume: Running out of supply, gathering goods, etc.