The future of cryptocurrencies: A question of speculation?

By Kavehu | Kavehu | 22 Oct 2023

First of all, I have not read the bestseller The Black Swan (or any other publication) by the world-renowned financial mathematician, professor, entrepreneur and philosopher Nassim Taleb. In addition, I lack economic education and mathematical talent. A writing career is also uncertain. What I do have, however, is an amazing ability to express myself freely. As is usual with Mr. Taleb, at the Sh!fts23 international conference he also spoke about cryptocurrencies and, traditionally, in a negative light. I'll allow myself a few reactions and observations.

Despite my slightly sarcastic tone, I think that similar opinions of influential personalities very well reflect the current opinion of society and it is necessary to talk about them openly. Let's go.

"People will soon lose interest in cryptocurrencies, they are fragile. The market is manipulated by a few individuals."

Manipulation was, is and always will be a part of the financial markets. Why should cryptocurrencies be any different? If people lose interest in cryptocurrencies, it will be for a different reason. If regulatory authorities lose interest in them, we have a problem.

"I can't say the exact reason, but I am convinced that Bitcoin is a fragile thing." Taleb answered, among other things, when asked why Bitcoin has not yet fallen to zero, as he had prophesied several times.

Yes. Bitcoin is a bit of a mystery. I'm not a big fan either in the sense of a store of value or a hedge against inflation. It is also not possible to pay for services or products. I don't count Ferrari. Value based on speculation? It to a certain extent. Revolutionary technology? Without discussion. We will end with the phrase you are so fond of using in your definition of the black swan phenomenon. It really depends on what perspective you look at it from.

"The future is competition between fiat currencies and not between crypto and fiat."

I agree. Cooperation or coexistence appears to be a more likely option. Those who talk about a financial revolution today will not see it in their lifetime. This is the realm of dreams and wishes. Crypto still has a long way to go. Or did Krypto go a very short distance? That perspective again...

"New and new buyers are buying digital currencies. When the supply of morons stops, the prices will collapse."

And the old buyers retire early - as is usual with Ponzi schemes... Clear opinion and clear delineation. As for the general intelligence of investors - If this is indeed the case, there is nothing to worry about. Many of you are probably familiar with a quote from another wise man that suggests there will be no shortage of new investors…