“The rear view mirror is always more clearer than the windshield.”
No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but we can learn from the past. Looking back at how the markets have performed during previous months and years can give you an idea of what may be in store for the future. Risk management is the one thing you can control while you wait for good opportunities to arise.
January 2022 closed as a red month and near its historical red average with a loss of about 16%. Bitcoin had 3 consecutive red months before the month of February finally brought some love to the market! Surprisingly, both February and March have been leading the Bitcoin bulls on a run! But the month of April wiped out ALL of those gains.
The month of April is supposed to be one of the best months for crypto! And yet there was not a single green week during the entire month! The month of April closed with a loss of 17%. Bitcoin has been bleeding for 5 consecutive weeks, which is something Bitcoin hasn’t done since August of 2014!
What’s next for Bitcoin in the month of May?
Have you ever heard of the old adage “Sell in May, go away?” Some investors find this strategy more rewarding than staying in the equity markets throughout the year. The belief is that as warm weather sets in, low volumes and the lack of market participants (supposedly investors are on vacations) can make for a somewhat riskier, or at a minimum lackluster, market period.
Does this strategy work for the cryptocurrency markets? May, like the month of April, is actually considered to be one of the best months for Bitcoin. In the past decade Bitcoin has closed six green monthly candles with an average return of 29%! Sounds very optimistic for crypto investors…
BUT… things could be different this year. The month of April has historically been looked at as a good month and it has been red this year and the last. Will Bitcoin continue this cycle?
For 3 consecutive months Bitcoin has closed in the red. The last time this happened was in April 2021. Following those 3 red months, Bitcoin exploded over the next 4 months and ultimately made a new all time high in early November 2021. February closed green, March closed green… and now April closed red. Is history repeating itself? Will May close red just like the previous year? It wasn’t until the month of July in 2021 that Bitcoin started to take off to higher highs.
As always, investors and traders should be cautious this month (especially with certain world events happening). The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index has settled at “Extreme Fear” for the past few weeks now.
Throughout the month of April we watched as Bitcoin lost critical support after support. Bitcoin is now barely holding onto the $34,000 support…
I mentioned last week that Bitcoin was in a falling wedge pattern. We can see that Bitcoin first broke out of that pattern to the upside, but then violently broke down and has since been continuing to fall lower and lower. Bitcoin went as low as $33,700.
Has my big picture for Bitcoin changed? Bitcoin has been supported by this rising m trend line that went as far back to June 2021, and now that Bitcoin has fallen below this line it looks like it may have lost its potential bullish structure with lower lows being established… However,
if you zoom out to the higher timeframes you’ll see that Bitcoin still appears to be in a range and bouncing in this huge consolidation zone between $30,000 and $60,000. If Bitcoin were to close outside of the lower range it is then that I would say that Bitcoin is in trouble. But until then I’m still not worried and I will continue to dollar cost average in.
Could we possibly see a reversal here? No one can predict with certainty where the bottom is but I remain bullish and optimistic. Could Bitcoin turn around and breakthrough the $40,000 zone? Most likely not anytime soon… I predict Bitcoin to move sideways for awhile as it looks and finds support. Then again, Bitcoin could just continue to follow its current trajectory towards lower lows.
Anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected. Stick to your plan. Take profits. Set your stop losses. Don’t get greedy.
As always, thank you for your time! If you found this post interesting or helpful in any way please let me know in the comments below. Feel free to follow me here on Publish0x or on my Instagram for more articles on how I invest or how I earn other free rewards such as crypto, stocks, or gift cards.
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*Disclaimer- I am not a certified financial planner/advisor, certified financial analyst, economist, CPA, accountant, or lawyer, or anything important for that matter. The contents of this article are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. Always do your own research.*