“The rear view mirror is always more clearer than the windshield.”
No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but we can learn from the past. Looking back at how the markets have performed during previous months and years can give you an idea of what may be in store for the future. Risk management is the one thing you can control while you wait for good opportunities to arise.
January 2022 closed as a red month and near its historical red average with a loss of about 16%. Bitcoin had 3 consecutive red months before the month of February finally brought some love to the market! Surprisingly, both February and March have been leading the Bitcoin bulls on a run! But the month of April wiped out ALL of those gains.
The month of April is supposed to be one of the best months for crypto! And yet there was not a single green week during the entire month! May was just the same with an entire month of red and a loss of 15%. Bitcoin has now been bleeding for 9 consecutive weeks, which is something Bitcoin hasn’t done in the last 10 years!
What’s next for Bitcoin in the month of June?
Have you ever heard of the old adage “Sell in May, go away?” Some investors find this strategy more rewarding than staying in the equity markets throughout the year. The belief is that as warm weather sets in, low volumes and the lack of market participants (supposedly investors are on vacations) can make for a somewhat riskier, or at a minimum lackluster, market period.
According to the data, the three worst months to own stocks are June, August, and September. Is that a coincidence that they’re all in the summer?
Does this strategy work for the cryptocurrency markets? Maybe not. May, like the month of April, is actually considered to be one of the best months for Bitcoin. In the past decade Bitcoin has closed six green monthly candles with an average return of 17.23%! Sounds very optimistic for crypto investors…
BUT… things could be different this year. While the month of June has historically been looked at as a good month, the last two years have closed as red. Will Bitcoin continue this cycle?
For 3 consecutive months Bitcoin has closed in the red. The last time this happened was in April 2021. Following those 3 red months, Bitcoin exploded over the next 4 months and ultimately made a new all time high in early November 2021. February closed green, March closed green… and now April and May have closed red… Will the month of June continue to bring Bitcoin lower and lower? Or is a reversal in sight?
It wasn’t until the month of July in 2021 that Bitcoin started to take off to higher highs.
As always, investors and traders should be cautious this month. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index has settled at “Extreme Fear” for the past few weeks now.
The end of May seemed to have been a turning point for Bitcoin. The bulls finally closed a green candle after bleeding for 9 consecutive weeks. Since then Bitcoin has been supported by this rising trend line. Maybe the bottom has come and gone?
Let’s zoom out and look at the big picture. Bitcoin had previously been supported by a rising trend line that went as far back as June 2021, and now that Bitcoin has fallen below this line it looks like it may have lost its potential bullish structure with lower lows being established… However zooming out on the higher timeframes you’ll see that Bitcoin still appears to be in a range and bouncing in this huge consolidation zone between $30,000 and $60,000. Bitcoin did produce a wick going below that range, down to $25,000, but still has yet to close outside of the lower range. There is definitely a possibility now that Bitcoin could go even lower now and if it does then I predict that $20,000 would be the next psychological support level to keep an eye on.
But until it does close below my orange box then I’m still not worried and I will continue to dollar cost average in.
Bitcoin has closed 9 red weekly candles, will this week finally break the trend and the bulls can close a green candle? Could we possibly see a reversal here? No one can predict with certainty where the bottom is but I remain bullish and optimistic. If Bitcoin can close the weekly above $30,000, then a retest of $32,000 and $34,000 zone could be possible. Most likely not anytime soon… I predict Bitcoin to move sideways and up for awhile as it looks and finds support.
Anything can happen. Always expect the unexpected. Stick to your plan. Take profits. Set your stop losses. Don’t get greedy.
As always, thank you for your time! If you found this post interesting or helpful in any way please let me know in the comments below. Feel free to follow me here on Publish0x or on my Instagram for more articles on how I invest or how I earn other free rewards such as crypto, stocks, or gift cards.
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*Disclaimer- I am not a certified financial planner/advisor, certified financial analyst, economist, CPA, accountant, or lawyer, or anything important for that matter. The contents of this article are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. Always do your own research.*
