Bienvenidos mis ositos, tu siempre eres mis queridos! (Welcome back little bears you are always my dears!)

Did you put in more than you could afford to lose fren?

Or did use margin?

Now I’m pretty sure most of my readers are pretty savvy. That’s why you’re here and that’s why you leave generous tips.

At least that’s what I like to think.

In case there are some bad apples out there let me scare you straight.

You see I’ve been in a few bear markets before. Both in stocks and in crypto.

The needle tears a hole
The old familiar sting
Try to kill it all away
But I remember everything

-Johnny Cash Hurt (Nine Inch Nails cover)

Here we go again

People are already scared but the real economy still looks strong at least for now. What will people do when the real world turns south?

Even with the recent rate hikes, interest rates and mortgage rates are near historic lows. If the Federal Reserve wants to targets 2% inflation, that could mean they need to hike rates to at least 6%. That would suggests hikes until 2023.

At least that’s my theory.

That would mean a lot of overleveraged companies (and individuals) could see crushing debt burdens. That could lead to less spending circulating through the global economy.

You think it’s bad now?

These are just the baby cubs having a snack, wait until mama bear and papa bear wake up.

There’s plenty of meat on the bone to sell.

But Panda, the S&P 500 recently hit the 20% drop threshold to be considered a bear market.

Shouldn’t things get better soon?

Well this anecdotal but I still see food waste and help wanted signs just by walking around. There’s still room to fall.

We’re bound to see some relief rallies until 2024.

Use those to take profits, if there’s any left or setup hedges (buying put options or shorting perpetual futures).

Beware of fake dips. Don’t get me wrong they are tempting but make sure you have enough capital to spread out over the next two years.

I’ve mentally prepared myself for quadruple digit Bitcoin ($5,000ish?) and triple digit Ethereum ($500ish?). There will be plenty of bargains later. Put together a shopping list and take your time. There should be less competition for your favorite  projects.

Don’t succumb to peer pressure. Remember it’s your money. Take your time on redeploying capital.

Everybody claims to be a diamond handed HODLer. Then the pain starts…

I still see fake youtube livestreams, scammy comments, and people trying to sell crap courses on how to cash in on crypto or NFTs. There’s still plenty of garbage that needs purging.

Please don’t try to make everything back on a few trades. That’s just asking for trouble.

Use this time wisely to learn a new skill or being productive in your line of work. Save up your fiat and look for opportunities to grab bargains.

I don’t enjoy writing these crypto apocalyptic posts but people with money on the line need to be realistic.

There are some things to look forward to though.

Some of the surviving projects that I’ve covered before are actually putting in work and generating revenue. Some are even shared with stakers or token holders!

Metamask finally has dark mode available (I know I’m grasping at straws here).

Paypal FINALLY allowed me to move my crypto to self-custody wallets. I hope you are/will be allowed to move yours as well.

Circle will release their Euro stablecoin soon so our European frens can derisk also.

Obviously none of this is formal financial or tax advice. You need to find qualified professionals in your jurisdiction.

Be sharp, stay hungry let’s get that money!