Bitcoin held strong above that 60K for so long.
But it broke below, and now everything seemed lost.

Plan B was wrong again

Plan B did not see this coming;

But I did, sort of. I mentioned the post halving dip, and the June Dips we´ve seen so often.

Just keep an eye on that last sentence I will be coming back to that later.

A Little History Lesson For Perspective

Three years ago in December 2021, I sold everything I had at that point. Bitcoin was as high as it was earlier this week. I think it was 63K tbh but what is 3K among friends?

Do you remember that time?

We went up to 63K in April 2021....
Down to 29K by June 2021.....

Hmm, a 50% correction that sounds like a big drop!

That will not happen this time, right?

You are trying to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt, right?

I actually don´t, I am just stating the facts.

No Fud, Just Facts

Now this ain´t 2021, although sometimes I wish it was because then I would be sure that by November 2021 BTC would set that ATH.

And yes I was wrong, but not as wrong as Plan B

I have been calling for months for a dump and a bottom in June and I might still get my way.
Many say that this cycle is different due to less leverage and more institutional money but personally, I think that is poo.

This market is volatile as F and we all know it.
That is a good thing.
It draws people in, projecting big gains.
Many can not stand the heat of volatility and leave at a loss.
Leaving money on the table for those with fireproof nerves and balls of steel.

Saw this coming, Almost

Like I said I saw this coming, but, as always, it came when I did not expect it. I think most of us know that problem 😁.

I hinted on that dump in May, and well it´s May but it´s too late to sell and go away anyway.

I should have sold in late March, or early April at the latest at 70K BTC.

Because even though back to 30K is still currently possible, I do not expect BTC to lose more than 15K from its recent 55K low.

If that happens it would bottom out around 40K, that is my worst-case scenario minor black swans included.

That means that currently, I am exactly between the 73K and the 43K low I forsee.

Hence if the bull is still alive???

There is just as much upside back to 70K as downside to 40K over the next months, but as the trend still slightly hints on Bullish I feel I am too late for the sell-in-May party once again. 

Just FYI for ALTs it´s a little different:

• Worst case scenario your ALTS will go to zero

• Expected scenario, your ALT bags will lose another 30% till September

Groundhog Day

Oops, I did it a gain!

Like every year,

should have sold my Alts in April.

Really the same thought every year!

But come April I always go: "well let´s see just a little longer, as long as I sell before May and go away till end of July."

Last year I should have sold mid-April. This year early April.

It is as if the Sell-in-May moment always comes early, and this time it came really early. This brings me to my Secondary Scenario

My Secondary Scenario

And this is where it gets interesting; everyone is wrong about the upcoming May-June dip.
Now I am coming back to that sentence earlier, the one I highlighted in the picture, that sentence about no June dip in the 2020 halving year.

If this scenario is correct, everything is different and it is all Blackrocks fault.

What if the ETF millions have sped up this cycle, what if we are 2-5 months ahead of schedule????
That would put us past that summer dip, right about....... now!

Maybe it´s just me injecting myself with some hopium to get through this period. But the trend is showing we are ahead.

The key signal here is breaking the ATH before halving, and having this  23% dip in April (while we should have the big one in late June). This might be showing that we are ahead of the curve for a couple of months. Which is in line with that Left Translated Cycle rumor.

A left-translated cycle simply means that, based on the 4-year cycle, we’d get a cycle peak sooner than seen in previous cycles. Everything happens earlier, the ATH, the retracement, the dip, the accumulation, and the next leg up.

TBH I am counting on a normal cycle but if the ETF pushed us to a left-skewed cycle this might be the June Dip. And where October normally brings fresh fiat into the market, this might happen already in August. Where the 25% dip comes end of June in the Secondary scenario we bottom in the next two weeks. June will be accumulation, July slowly moves the needle, market will go up, and the big candle come in August.

Don´t Panic

If you are worried, stop it!
Remember it´s only money!
Keep in mind that this is a game, and if you are taking it too seriously you will lose.

But if you are having fun playing this game you probably remember 2021. You felt that 50% drop to 29K during that long lockdown summer when nothing happened. Then when October came we went from 42K to 66.6K BTC in 3 weeks.

Keep that perspective, this is not a sprint unless you are only into memes ofc.

That is the scenario I expect for 2024 although it might be a bit earlier. The only question is: 2021 was the post-halving year the year we should peak. And we did at 67K in November.

This cycle that post-halving year is 2025, so if we go above ATH in 2024 will that be the top? It should not, a serious break (80K or more) of the ATH in 2024 should male Bitcoin finally go parabolic?

Bikini Bottom Line

Well, let's get to that 80K BTC point first. 

For now, all I know is that I came early as always.

I already used all the dry powder I gathered selling on the way up. I had about $800 from selling ALTs since January and I used it all. I bought everything I sold back at a 20-30% discount, hence increasing all those bags nicely. The pump last Friday to 63K BTC tells me I might have spent it all at the right moment.

But if this cycle is not a leftie, we will have two more months of chopping sideways and downwards ahead of us, without any buy-the-dip funds in my account.

Lesson Learned: 

Don´t be like me!

Do not spend all your dry powder already!  (Not unless you are happy buying back at a 30% discount on average)
I was fully invested in early November 2023, no stable penny left.

I am fully invested again 6 months later, the only thing that changed is that my bags are bigger now (and my balls added an additional layer of steel)

Future Outlook:

I do not plan to invest any fiat unless we go near 40K by the 21st of June. I invested in what I wanted, when I wanted and I now need to make the best returns possible on that investment.
The good thing is that we got out of that 64K Bore Market, we touched a bottom and I am playing with both scenarios in mind.

If we have a normal cycle we might still have that June Dip, although it did not happen the previous halving year. Still, I will take profits on this current move up. I will take those till at least 5% of my portfolio is in stablecoins again, and spend it all in June.

If that Left Translated Thingy is true, and this was the June Dip, I will still be selling on the way up but the dip down will have passed already and in August when we break 80K I might spend some of that 5% stables on good looking ALTs.

The only thing that I am truly too late for is to sell big in May and go Away.

ALTS in average are already down 40% and the risk of not being able to buy back in at a good price after last week's dip is just like my..... it´s too big.

And FYI, if you think I am conservative, you are right.

If you think I am bearish please check yourself before you get REKT yourself.

Thank goodness you made it till the end Pees, Love and I am out of here!

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𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲 (𝕄𝕒𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕘) 𝐆𝐚𝐦𝐞

𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐐𝐮𝐢𝐭 𝐌𝐲 𝐁𝐮𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐢𝐩 𝐀𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧?

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗗𝗶𝗱𝗻´𝘁, 𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗕𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗠𝗲 𝗥𝗶𝗰𝗵

𝕄𝕪 𝔼𝕟𝕕 𝔾𝕒𝕞𝕖 - 𝗚𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗢𝘂𝘁 𝗢𝗳 𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼

𝗜 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝔹𝕋ℂ 𝕋𝕠𝕡 𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝔹𝕦𝕝𝕝 ℝ𝕦𝕟 𝗧𝗼 𝗕𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝘄 𝟭𝟱𝟬𝗞

Post Scriptum:

Exchanges where I trade Crypto (Affiliate Links):

BitVavo Exchange- Best European Exchange. easy on and off ramp with slightly higher trading fees (0.25 %) & Great Customer Service - https://bitvavo.com/?a=C21A94C2FD

Kucoin Exchange - Hong Kong. Okay, trading fees (0.1 %) & Contains a lot of low-cap gems. Customer Service takes time - https://www.kucoin.com/ucenter/signup?rcode=rJ821BX&lang=en_US&utm_source=friendInvite

Bitmart - Global (USA allowed) Low, trading fees if you use BMX (0.025 %) & Contains a wide variety of coins - https://www.bitmart.com/en?r=7XFCVy

Platforms where I Earn Crypto for my Content (Affiliate Links):

Torum - https://www.torum.com/?referral_code=bitcoinbaby

Bulb: https://www.bulbapp.io?referral_code=hidjl8

Hive - https://hiveonboard.com/?ref=whywhy

Publish0x - https://www.publish0x.com?a=l9avg4xnbG

[Source Pic](All pics by MYI & AI unless watermarked or mentioned)