The Crypto Weather Forecast is my daily take on the crypto market, sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic, often with a wink, and Always Honest.

If been saying for quite some time that buying ALTs is not on my current to-do in the crypto-verse list.

And that´s not because Mike Novogratz, the founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. mentioned this week that some smaller tokens are down 80% from their highs. And that if their losses accelerate to the same degree they did in 2018, those coins could lose an additional 70%.

“My point is picking bottoms is dangerous,” he tweeted. “And if you do scale in slowly.”

Now I think Mike is overreacting a bit I would keep it at 60%. Simply because the Bitcoin dominance is not (yet) as high as in 2018. On the other hand, I am holding ALTs that already lost 90% and I am not talking LUNA.

Mike also mentions that something big needs to happen to reach the bottom, some big company needs to go bankrupt. There I agree with Mr. Novogratz that we will need/see a trigger that causes one more hysterical dump before we crypto can start its way up. So, Mike and I think we will see an even bigger dip than the Luna dump we just saw.

That thingy caused BTC to fall by 10K, now the next big hit might not be directly crypto-related but impacting a huge player in the global financial market.

Another 10K would take us to 21-18K Bitcoin, a bottom I see as reasonable. Now my friend Scot Minerd, who happens to be Chief Investment Officer at the Guggenheim, is having a slightly different opinion. He is calling for an 8K BTC bottom, and I am sure it will not drop below 12K.

I mean what does he know, he only runs a company responsible for a couple (325) of billions and this baby is responsible for something that once was 12K, before the bear came in and ruined his party.

But whoever is right on this one, we both agree there is some room on the downside for Bitcoin. 

Hence ALTs are not what I plan on buying (I know they look tasty already) until we dip another 10K.  I have a second reason for that as well, but that dear reader is for tomorrow's forecast.

Have a lovely day, remember that hitting the like button is one of the few free things in life, and hope to see you tomorrow.

Previous Forecast:

𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 #6 - I rather be Wrong and Rich