The Crypto Weather Forecast is my daily take on the crypto market, sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic, often with a wink, and Always Honest.

I expected this week to finally turn green, but the cold hard reality is that we have been losing money quicker than the South pole is losing ice.

In November we were freaking wealthy, and things were looking sunny right before Christmas 2021.

From 68k to 46K in 3 weeks' time and 2022 had not even started.

So lets FFW to Today at 30K

$30.000 BTC is a 56% drop from the top.

Now I know it´s painful but let's have a look at our portfolios. How bad are they hurting? I show you mine, you show me yours in the comments.

Loss in BTC value

Nov 0.090 Kucoin    May 0.0675  Loss  0.0225 = 25%  

Nov 0.045 Bitmart   May 0.034    Loss  0.011   = 24%

Nov 0.069 Coinomi May 0.069    Loss  0          = 0%

A Conservative Positive Forecast

That doesn´t look that bad until you look at the losses in dollars. But before we do that, just a positive forecast 0.17 BTC by Nov 2025 would be?

0.17 BTC * $320.000 = $54.000

Now for the less positive news

Looking at the dollar value of my current loss is not really making my day:

Loss in $ value

Nov 0.090 Kucoin   $6120  May 0.0675 $2000  Loss 67%

Nov 0.045 Bitmart  $3060  May 0.034   $1000  Loss 65%

Nov 0.069 Coinomi $4700 May  0.069  $2100  Loss 56%

This really looks like heavy weather to me, but after the rain comes the rainbow.

Why did I lose more than that 56%?  Well, because I was holding my ALTS a bit longer than what was healthy as ALTs dumped even faster than Bitcoin did. 

Bottom Line

A 300K BTC is only a 10X, and a 10X is conservative compared to what´s normal for a BTC Cycle. 

An average cycle would do 15X. Hence we might drop a bit more, all the way to 20K. And even then 300K by November 2025 would still be realistic based on the historical data.

So even though we are at the start of a very cool crypto season, the semi long-term prospects are oh so sunny.

Have a lovely day, remember that hitting the like button is one of the few free things in life, and hope to see you tomorrow.

Previous Forecast:

𝐂𝐫𝐲𝐩𝐭𝐨 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭 #4 - Crypto Winter is coming this Summer